Brief
World Bank projects UAE GDP to surge 9.5% in 2027 after 2026 contraction
The World Bank expects the UAE to post a 9.5% expansion in 2027, driven by AI, logistics and advanced manufacturing, while maintaining a 4.2% fiscal surplus.
By Felo News Desk · Published
The World Bank’s October 6 report forecasts the United Arab Emirates will expand its gross domestic product by 9.5% in 2027 after a 1.6% contraction in 2026, positioning the country among the fastest‑growing GCC economies.
What happened
The report projects GCC output to fall 4.3% in 2026 before rebounding 10.3% in 2027. For the UAE, the Bank predicts 6.2% growth in 2025, a 1.6% dip in 2026 and a 9.5% surge the following year. The forecast follows a sharp disruption caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which the Bank says hit Gulf oil exporters harder than previous energy shocks.
What the reports add
Gulf News notes that the UAE is expected to keep a fiscal surplus of 4.2% of GDP in 2026 and a current‑account surplus equal to 8.2% of GDP. The report also highlights the UAE’s rise in AI capability – moving from 32nd in the Global AI Vibrancy Index in 2017 to eighth in 2024 – and its ranking among the top‑25 global nations for AI model development and high‑performance computing.
What was said
UAE Minister of Tourism and Economy Abdullah bin Touq Al Marri told CNN’s Becky Anderson that the rebound “is a counter‑attack” and that the impact depends on where the extra activity is directed. He added, “If you take that kind of growth and say, ‘All right, it’s going to go into advanced manufacturing, it’s going to go into logistics, it’s going to go into AI, it’s going to go into robotics, it’s going to go into productivity…’ that’s something massive.”
How it came about
The forecast follows a year of severe supply‑chain and energy disruptions, including the Hormuz closure, and builds on the UAE’s push to diversify into AI, fintech and green technologies, as reported in Felo’s October 7 article on new‑economy firms. The government’s emphasis on advanced sectors aligns with earlier Felo coverage of AI‑related investments and the country’s climb in global AI rankings.
Key facts
- World Bank forecasts UAE GDP growth of 9.5% in 2027 after a 1.6% contraction in 2026. (gulfnews.com)
- UAE is expected to maintain a fiscal surplus of 4.2% of GDP in 2026. (gulfnews.com)
- UAE’s AI vibrancy rank rose from 32nd in 2017 to 8th in 2024. (gulfnews.com)
Sources
- [1] gulfnews.com — originally reported as “UAE Economy to Rebound 9. 5% in 2027 After 2026 Contraction: World Bank Report”
