Brief
South African Reserve Bank warns fuel prices could stay high after Middle East war ends
The central bank links persistent high fuel costs to destroyed refinery capacity and tight global oil inventories.
By Felo News Desk · Published
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) cautioned on 7 Oct 2026 that fuel prices may remain elevated after the war involving the United States, Israel and Iran ends. In its Monetary Policy Review released in Pretoria, chief economist Konstantin Makrelov said refinery damage and constrained export capacity could decouple fuel prices from crude oil trends.
What happened
The SARB’s review noted that the destruction of oil refineries in the conflict zones is likely to affect fuel prices even after peace returns to West Asia. Makrelov made the remarks following the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources’ October fuel‑price adjustment, which pushed South African petrol to a record level and kept diesel prices high.
What the reports add
According to the review, fuel inflation rose almost 25 % in the second quarter of 2026, and the central bank expressed “serious concern” about rising diesel prices and their impact on inflation expectations. The article also cited industry executives at a London forum saying accessible oil storage is running low, with less than six billion barrels of commercial inventories remaining.
What was said
"The story is not only about oil prices. It is also about refinery margins, which have increased across regions as refining capacity has been destroyed or taken out of production and the ability to export refined products has been constrained," Makrelov told SABC News, as reported by bizcommunity.com. "It seems that refinery margins are decoupling from oil prices and so even if oil prices moderate, fuel prices are likely to remain elevated," he added.
How it came about
The warning follows a series of regional fuel‑price shocks, including Pakistan’s subsidy programme (see Felo’s coverage) and rising diesel costs in the UAE and UK. Global supply strains are further highlighted by Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser’s comments on dwindling inventories and the International Energy Agency’s plan to release 100 million barrels of crude and diesel.
Key facts
- SARB warned fuel prices may stay high after the US‑Israel‑Iran war ends (bizcommunity.com)
- Fuel inflation rose nearly 25 % in Q2 2026 (bizcommunity.com)
- Less than six billion barrels of commercial oil inventories remain globally (bizcommunity.com)
- SARB chief economist Konstantin Makrelov linked refinery damage to persistent fuel price pressure (bizcommunity.com)
Sources
- [1] bizcommunity.com — originally reported as “Fuel prices may stay high after the war ends, warns SA Reserve Bank”
