Brief
South Africa’s fuel price surge threatens job market, says economist
Chief economist Bongani Motsa says higher fuel costs risk widening job losses across several sectors.
By Felo News Desk · Published
South Africa could see its job market further strained by rising fuel prices, warned Bongani Motsa, chief economist at the Minerals Council South Africa, according to a report by bizcommunity.com on 1 October 2026.
Motsa noted that retail fuel prices are already well above pre‑war levels, with October averages projected at R3.12 per litre for 95‑octane petrol, R2.93 for 93‑octane, R2.73 for diesel (0.05 % sulphur) and R3.13 for diesel (0.005 % sulphur). He added that diesel prices are roughly 42‑43 % higher than March 2022, while petrol is about 32 % higher, and paraffin is nearly 48 % above its pre‑war benchmark.
The warning comes as Statistics South Africa data show the economy shed 16,459 jobs between the first and second quarters of 2026, with total formal non‑agricultural employment falling from 10.44 million to 10.42 million. Manufacturing, finance, trade and transport all recorded job losses, while only four sectors posted gains: community services (+29,578 jobs), mining (+1,002), construction (+1,412) and utilities (+128).
Mining employment rose slightly to about 472,804 workers in Q2 2026, standing out as the sector remained stable despite a 3 % quarterly contraction in mining GDP. Motsa warned that persistent fuel price pressure could raise transport and logistics costs, feed through supply chains, lift consumer prices and erode corporate operating margins.
Higher operating costs, he said, may limit wage growth and complicate wage negotiations, as workers seek compensation for rising living expenses while firms grapple with weak productivity gains.
Despite the challenges, wage data for May 2026 show nominal earnings growth of 4.1 % year‑on‑year across the economy, with mining workers earning an average of R37,009 per month – still well above the national average.
Key facts
- October fuel price averages are projected at R3.12/L for 95‑octane petrol and R2.73/L for diesel. (bizcommunity.com)
- South Africa lost 16,459 jobs between Q1 and Q2 2026, dropping formal non‑agricultural employment to 10.42 million. (bizcommunity.com)
- Mining employment rose to roughly 472,804 workers in Q2 2026, the only sector with stable jobs amid a 3 % GDP contraction. (bizcommunity.com)
- Average monthly earnings grew 4.1 % year‑on‑year to R30,611 in May 2026, with mining workers earning R37,009. (bizcommunity.com)
Sources
- [1] bizcommunity.com — originally reported as “Further fuel price hikes could strain SA’s job market, warns economist”
