Ofgem and National Gas plan aim to avert winter gas shortages in the UK

The regulator’s latest consultation seeks to keep enough gas capacity on the grid even in rare extreme‑weather conditions.

By Felo News Desk · Published Fri, 23 Oct 2026 22:49:46 GMT

Britain’s energy regulator Ofgem and gas‑grid operator National Gas have released a consultation paper intended to prevent a potential shortfall of gas on a peak winter day, according to both the Standard and the Independent.

What happened

On 20 October, Ofgem published a paper outlining a scenario in which an unusually cold spell pushes gas demand to very high levels while the country’s largest domestic gas source – the North Sea – is offline. In that “very rare stress condition”, the regulator said demand could marginally exceed the amount the grid can supply, but only if a planned reduction in the capacity of a pipeline that sends gas to Europe proceeds.

What the reports add

Both outlets report that the consultation is designed to stop the pipeline‑capacity reduction, thereby ensuring “more than enough capacity even in these very rare conditions”. The Standard notes that shadow energy secretary Andrew Bowie posted on social media that Ofgem could not guarantee homes would stay warm on a peak day, while the Independent repeats the same quote and adds that opposition leader Kemi Badenoch echoed the concern on BBC Breakfast.

What was said

Andrew Bowie, described as a shadow energy secretary, wrote on social media: “Sneaked out by OFGEM this morning, a warning for the first time EVER they cannot guarantee that demand will be met on a peak day in winter… And why? Because of an accelerated decline in domestic gas supply from the North Sea.” The Independent attributes the same wording to Bowie.

Kemi Badenoch, the opposition’s energy spokesperson, told BBC Breakfast: “Yesterday, Ofgem talked about gas demand and how we might not be able to handle a single peak day in winter.” Both outlets attribute the quote to Badenoch.

How it came about

Earlier this month, ENTSO‑G warned that UK gas storage could fall to zero if a cold snap hit, prompting calls for additional North Sea projects and LNG imports (Felo coverage). The following day, the National Energy System Operator reported a winter electricity surplus but warned of possible tight gas days in December or January (Felo coverage). In that context, Ofgem’s consultation seeks to safeguard gas supply by keeping the cross‑channel pipeline capacity intact.

Key facts

Ofgem released a consultation paper on 20 October to prevent a pipeline capacity reduction that could limit gas supply in rare winter stress conditions. (standard.co.uk)
The scenario assumes extreme weather combined with the offline status of the UK’s biggest domestic gas source, the North Sea. (standard.co.uk)
Shadow energy secretary Andrew Bowie warned on social media that Ofgem could not guarantee homes would stay warm on a peak winter day. (standard.co.uk)
Opposition leader Kemi Badenoch echoed the warning on BBC Breakfast. (independent.co.uk)