Kemi Badenoch claims seven‑quarter slump in business confidence, fact‑check shows mixed record
Fact‑checkers say the Institute of Directors survey does not fully support Badenoch’s seven‑quarter statement.
By Felo News Desk · Published
Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch told parliament that business confidence has been negative for seven consecutive quarters – a streak she said had never occurred before – and added that the last positive reading was under a Labour government.
What happened
Badenoch made the remarks while responding to the UK Budget on Wednesday. She cited a decline in business confidence that, according to her, spanned seven quarters in a row.
What the reports add
Both the Independent and the Evening Standard report that the Conservative Party pointed to a survey from the Institute of Directors (IoD) as the source of the claim. The IoD’s Directors’ Economic Confidence Index, which tracks how optimistic business leaders feel about the economy, has indeed been negative for an extended period. However, the reports note three mismatches with Badenoch’s statement:
- The IoD index is measured monthly, not quarterly, and some months are omitted.
- The index has been negative since August 2024, amounting to just under nine quarters, not seven.
- While Badenoch said the seven‑quarter negative streak was unprecedented, the IoD data shows a longer negative run, contradicting the “never happened before” claim.
What was said
"Business confidence is negative, not just this quarter, and not just the last quarter, but for seven quarters in a row. That has never happened before," Badenoch told MPs, as reported by the Independent.
"In case Labour MPs do not understand what that means, the last time business confidence was positive was when we were in charge," she added, according to the Evening Standard.
How it came about
The Conservative Party has frequently used the IoD confidence index to argue that its economic policies improve business sentiment. Earlier this year, the party highlighted the index in its budget narrative, suggesting a turnaround under its leadership. Felo News previously covered the party’s reliance on the IoD data in a budget analysis published on 2026‑10‑15.
Key facts
- Kemi Badenoch said business confidence has been negative for seven consecutive quarters. (independent.co.uk)
- The Institute of Directors' confidence index has been negative since August 2024, covering just under nine quarters. (standard.co.uk)
- The IoD index is measured monthly, not quarterly, and omits some months. (independent.co.uk)
Sources
- [1] independent.co.uk
- [2] standard.co.uk
