Brief
Saudi Arabia forecasts wetter October and November with above‑normal temperatures
The National Center for Meteorology says October could see up to 80% chance of above‑average rainfall and temperatures up to 3 °C above normal.
By Felo News Desk · Published
Saudi Arabia's National Center for Meteorology (NCM) issued a seasonal outlook on Monday, projecting widespread heavy rainfall through November and temperatures that will remain above seasonal norms until the end of December, Gulf News reported.
What happened
The outlook indicates an 80% probability of above‑average precipitation across most of the Kingdom in October, especially along the Red Sea and Arabian Gulf coasts. Mecca, Jazan and much of the Eastern Province are singled out for "extremely heavy" rain, while the southern part of the Eastern Province is excluded. Other regions expected to see substantial rain include Tabuk, Medina, Al Baha, Asir, Al Jouf, Hail, Qassim and the Northern Borders. November’s probability eases to 75% but still covers Mecca, Riyadh, Al Baha, Asir, Jazan, Al Jouf, Tabuk, the Northern Borders and the Eastern Province. By December, rainfall should revert to seasonal averages, though Mecca and parts of the Eastern Province may still see 40‑50% chances of above‑average rain.
What the reports add
The NCM expects temperatures to stay above normal nationwide for the last three months of 2026. In October, affected areas could be up to 3 °C hotter than average, narrowing to 2.5 °C in November and 1.5 °C in December. The largest temperature departures are forecast for southeastern Mecca, eastern Al Baha, most of Asir, northeastern Jazan and much of Najran, as well as southern Riyadh and parts of the Eastern Province.
Key facts
- October rainfall probability is 80% above average across most of Saudi Arabia (gulfnews.com)
- Mecca, Jazan and the Eastern Province could see extremely heavy rain (gulfnews.com)
- Temperatures may be up to 3 °C above normal in October, falling to 1.5 °C above in December (gulfnews.com)
Sources
- [1] gulfnews.com — originally reported as “Saudi Arabia weather: Heavy rainfall and above-normal temperatures expected through November”
