UAE meteorological service forecasts above‑average October rain and a slight temperature dip with fog risk

National Centre of Meteorology predicts October rain above the 5.2 mm average, temperatures near 40 °C and increasing fog chances by Sunday.

By Felo News Desk · Published Sat, 03 Oct 2026 08:28:47 GMT

Abu Dhabi – The UAE’s National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) said on Monday that October will bring slightly above‑average rainfall, temperatures that remain close to 40 °C and a growing risk of fog, especially on Sunday.

What happened

The centre noted that the country’s historical October average rainfall is 5.2 mm and that this month’s precipitation is expected to exceed that figure modestly. Mean temperature for the month is normally 29.7 °C, but forecasts for the first weekend show daytime highs of 40 °C in Abu Dhabi and 39 °C in Dubai and Sharjah, with Al Sila reaching 41 °C. Humidity is projected to rise to 80 % in Abu Dhabi and up to 85 % in Fujairah, Al Ruwais and Dalma.

Wind will shift from southeasterly in the early hours to northwesterly later, blowing at 10‑30 km/h and occasionally up to 30 km/h. Sea conditions are expected to stay slight across the Arabian Gulf and range from slight to moderate in the Oman Sea.

What the reports add

Gulf News’ October‑weather piece highlighted historical extremes, noting the highest October temperature recorded was 46.3 °C in Mezaira’a in 2017 and the heaviest October rain fell in Al Shuwaib in 2016 with 139 mm. It also mentioned fog frequency, citing 22 fog days in 2017.

The later Gulf News forecast focused on the imminent weekend, specifying that mist could develop overnight into Sunday across coastal areas, with fog risk increasing on Sunday. It added that Fujairah may see the lowest temperature at 35 °C.

What was said

"Rainfall across the UAE is expected to be slightly above average this October, while temperatures are also forecast to remain higher than normal," the NCM said, as reported by Gulf News.

"Conditions will be generally fair, becoming partly cloudy to cloudy at times over eastern and southern parts of the country," Gulf News wrote, citing the NCM’s outlook for Saturday.

How it came about

The forecast follows the UAE’s autumn transition that began on 1 October, a period described in Felo’s earlier coverage UAE enters autumn transition with cooler days and higher rain chances in October. Earlier September forecasts warned of rising humidity and fog risk, as detailed in Felo’s UAE Weather Forecast: Fair to Partly Cloudy Saturday with Humid Nights and UAE Weather to Ease as Fog and Dust Expected This Week. The current outlook therefore reflects a continuation of the seasonal shift toward cooler, wetter conditions while maintaining high temperatures typical for the region.

Key facts

October rainfall is expected to exceed the historical average of 5.2 mm. (gulfnews.com)
Daytime highs on the weekend will be around 40 °C in Abu Dhabi and 39 °C in Dubai and Sharjah. (gulfnews.com)
Humidity could reach 85 % in Fujairah, Al Ruwais and Dalma. (gulfnews.com)
Fog or mist risk increases on Sunday, especially along coastal areas. (gulfnews.com)