Brief
Met Office warns of unprecedented El Niño boosting polar‑vortex risk for London
Experts say the incoming El Niño may weaken the stratospheric polar vortex, increasing the risk of sudden stratospheric warming and severe winter weather.
By Felo News Desk · Published
The Met Office has issued an update linking the forecast‑record El Niño to a possible weakening of the polar vortex, which could bring unusually cold, windy and snowy conditions to London later this winter, according to Standard.
What happened
The agency notes that the current El Niño, described as a “Godzilla” event, follows a hot, dry summer and is already larger than the 2015/16 episode. Research from NOAA’s Chemical Sciences Laboratory suggests El Niño can promote polar‑vortex breakdown, especially in late winter.
What the reports add
Standard cites a Met Office spokesperson explaining that a weaker vortex may trigger Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW), which can force cold air southward and create a blocking pattern that sustains cold weather. Dr Will Lang, chief forecaster, called the shift in odds “subtle” rather than certain, while climate spokesman Grahame Madge said the event has already surpassed the magnitude of previous El Niño episodes.
What was said
“Through the latter part of the winter, following a peak in El Niño, the stratospheric Polar Vortex can become weaker, leading to an increased chance of Sudden Stratospheric Warming events,” the spokesperson told Standard. Dr Lang added, “We are going in with a heightened potential for wet weather, heightened potential for potentially stormy conditions, and that leads through to a heightened potential for flooding.” Madge warned of a tendency toward a stormier start to autumn and winter and colder spells at winter’s end.
Key facts
- The Met Office links the record‑strength El Niño to a possible weakening of the polar vortex. (standard.co.uk)
- NOAA research says El Niño can promote polar‑vortex breakdown, especially in late winter. (standard.co.uk)
- A weaker vortex could trigger Sudden Stratospheric Warming, increasing cold‑weather risk for London. (standard.co.uk)
- Dr Will Lang described the shift in odds as subtle, not certain. (standard.co.uk)
- Grahame Madge noted the current El Niño has surpassed the magnitude of the 2015/16 event. (standard.co.uk)
Sources
- [1] standard.co.uk — originally reported as “Met Office issues polar vortex update amid London El Nino fears”
