IMF upgrades 2026 world growth forecast to 3.1% amid uneven AI boom

The IMF lifted its 2026 global growth projection to 3.1% but warns that growth will become more concentrated and oil price spikes could push inflation higher.

By Felo News Desk · Published Tue, 13 Oct 2026 05:07:09 GMT

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday raised its outlook for global growth in 2026 to 3.1%, up from a July forecast of 3.0%, as world leaders gathered in Bangkok for its fall meetings.

What happened

The IMF’s Economic Outlook, released on 12 Oct 2026, said the world economy expanded at a 3.5% annual rate in 2025 and is now expected to grow 3.1% in 2026. It projected United States growth to hold steady at 2.3% in both 2026 and 2027. The report also warned that oil prices are likely to rise by about 41% in 2026, reaching an average of $96 a barrel, which would lift global inflation to 4.7% from 4.1% in 2025.

What the reports add

Both the Winnipeg Free Press (via the Associated Press) and The Independent reported the upgraded 3.1% forecast and the unchanged U.S. growth outlook.
The Independent added that the oil‑price surge is expected to boost global inflation to 4.7% in 2026.
It also noted that AI‑related demand is concentrating growth: 32 countries now account for 95% of global growth, down from 54 countries in April.
The Independent provided regional detail, saying advanced economies are forecast to grow to 2.1% in 2026 (up from 2.0% in 2025) before slowing to 1.9% in 2027, while developing economies are expected to slow to 3.7% in 2026 from 4.5% in 2025 and then rebound to 4.4% in 2027.
It highlighted that the Middle East and Central Asia are projected to contract in 2026 before expanding at a 6.3% pace in 2027.
Euro‑area economies are expected to grow 1.1% in 2026 and 1.2% in 2027.

What was said

"The outlook is highly uneven," Silvana Tenreyro, the IMF’s director of research, told reporters in Bangkok.

"The global economy is not simply slowing or accelerating; rather, growth is being reallocated across countries according to their exposure to the war‑induced supply shock and AI‑related demand strength," the IMF report said.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva described AI’s impact on jobs as "a slow moving tsunami, but tsunami nonetheless," adding that "the impact over time on jobs globally we estimate to be around 40% — jobs either augmented or downgraded or eliminated. And we are already seeing some of this impact."

How it came about

The modest upgrade follows a July projection of 3.0% growth and reflects a mixed backdrop of higher oil prices, lingering supply shocks from the war in Ukraine, and a surge in artificial‑intelligence‑related demand. Earlier this month, Felo News reported on the United Arab Emirates’ AI‑driven growth prospects for 2027 (World Bank projects UAE GDP to surge 9.5% in 2027 after 2026 contraction), underscoring the uneven benefits of the AI boom that the IMF now notes.

Key facts

IMF raised its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1% from 3.0% in July. (winnipegfreepress.com)
World economy grew 3.5% in 2025. (winnipegfreepress.com)
U.S. growth is projected at 2.3% for 2026 and 2027. (winnipegfreepress.com)
IMF expects oil prices to rise about 41% in 2026, averaging $96 a barrel. (independent.co.uk)
Global inflation is projected at 4.7% in 2026, up from 4.1% in 2025. (independent.co.uk)
Growth is now concentrated in 32 countries that account for 95% of global growth. (independent.co.uk)

Where accounts differ

Oil‑price forecast and inflation impact: No mention of oil‑price or inflation forecasts. (winnipegfreepress.com); Oil prices expected to rise 41% to $96 a barrel, pushing inflation to 4.7% in 2026. (independent.co.uk)