Brief

UNCTAD says global growth to slow as India, Indonesia and China outpace peers

UNCTAD projects global growth at 2.6% in 2026, with India, Indonesia and China posting the highest rates among developing nations.

By Felo News Desk · Published Sun, 11 Oct 2026 10:12:27 GMT

According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, global growth is expected to slow to 2.6% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027, down from 2.9% in 2025.

What happened

The trade body attributes the slowdown to inflationary pressures, tighter monetary policy and higher borrowing costs that are curbing private consumption, investment and trade. Global trade grew 4.4% in real terms in 2025 and is projected to expand about 4% in 2026, outpacing expectations when the Middle‑East conflict began.

What the reports add

UNCTAD notes a bifurcated picture in the developing world: high‑growth economies such as India, Indonesia and China are driving expansion, while import‑dependent nations face tighter fiscal space and rising debt‑service costs. It projects India’s GDP to grow 7.3% in 2026 and 6.8% in 2027, Indonesia 5.2% and China 4.5%.

What was said

The report highlights that India’s household consumption is expected to rise 6.9% this year and 5.6% next, though these rates represent a slowdown from earlier years.

How it came about

UNCTAD’s outlook follows a 2025 energy shock that exposed the macro‑economic cost of energy dependence for developed economies, which are characterised by stagnation and tightening monetary environments. The artificial‑intelligence boom continues to sustain trade momentum, with AI‑related hardware becoming the main driver of merchandise trade.

Key facts

UNCTAD forecasts global growth at 2.6% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027. (deccanchronicle.com)
India is projected to grow 7.3% in 2026, Indonesia 5.2%, and China 4.5%. (deccanchronicle.com)
Global trade grew 4.4% in real terms in 2025 and is expected to expand about 4% in 2026. (deccanchronicle.com)