Brief
Coface predicts copper and nickel prices could double by 2035
The forecast highlights structural supply gaps and rising tariffs that could keep industrial metals in a prolonged bull market.
By Felo News Desk · Published
Coface, a global financial services firm, released a report on October 7 saying copper and nickel prices could double by 2035, driven by construction, the energy transition and electrification, according to mining.com.
What happened
The analysis projects that, by 2035, supply will rise only 1% annually for copper and 1.5% for nickel, while demand is expected to grow about 1.8% per year for both metals. Under a net‑zero scenario, demand growth accelerates to roughly 2.2% for copper and 4.5% for nickel. The report also notes that aluminum, copper and nickel could face average supply deficits of around 10% of demand by that year.
What the reports add
Mining.com reports that Coface counted 1,138 import and export restrictions on minerals, more than triple the 357 recorded a decade earlier, and that recent U.S. tariff measures have further tightened the market. The firm attributes the supply squeeze to longer permitting times for new mines, processing delays of 15‑20 years, weak incentives for capacity expansion and a shift of value capture toward refining rather than extraction.
What was said
"US tariffs are part of a much larger shift in how metals are traded," Marcos Carias, North America economist at Coface, told mining.com. He added, "For manufacturers in the US, Canada and Mexico, that means planning for higher metal costs over the long term instead of waiting for a trade deal to bring prices back down."
How it came about
The report draws on data from the London Metal Exchange, U.S. Geological Survey, World Bank and International Energy Agency, among others. Coface argues that the pressure on industrial metals reflects structural constraints that higher prices alone may not quickly resolve, suggesting a prolonged bull market for copper, nickel and related commodities.
Key facts
- Coface forecasts copper and nickel prices could double by 2035. (mining.com)
- Supply growth is projected at 1% per year for copper and 1.5% for nickel, while demand could rise 1.8% annually. (mining.com)
- Coface identified 1,138 mineral trade restrictions, more than triple the number a decade earlier. (mining.com)
- Marcos Carias said U.S. tariffs add pressure to an already tightening metals market. (mining.com)
Sources
- [1] mining.com — originally reported as “Copper, nickel prices could double by 2035: report”
