Brief
Iran‑US conflict lifts Australian LNG earnings by $23 billion, department says
Department of Industry, Science and Resources data show the war‑driven surge could raise LNG revenue to $70 billion, up from earlier forecasts of $47 billion.
By Felo News Desk · Published
The war in the Middle East is delivering a huge windfall for Australian gas exporters, with new government figures suggesting soaring prices could add $23 billion to their combined revenue this year, according to the Department of Industry, Science and Resources.
What happened
One‑off cargoes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are now fetching more than double their pre‑war prices, boosting earnings for producers that can reliably dispatch shipments to customers outside the Persian Gulf. The surge follows Iranian missile strikes on a key Qatari LNG hub and continued disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil‑and‑gas route that has crippled up to 20 percent of the world’s LNG supply.
What the reports add
The department’s updated figures, released on Friday, show LNG revenue is now expected to climb to as high as $70 billion this financial year, a potential $23 billion increase on the government’s earlier forecast of $47 billion. Before the war began on 28 February, federal forecasts had predicted a slip in export earnings from more than $50 billion to $47 billion, driven by an anticipated wave of new LNG projects in the United States and Qatar that were expected to create oversupply.
What was said
“The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has stymied a long‑anticipated shift towards surplus supply,” the department report said. It added that “LNG cargo movements through the Strait of Hormuz remain intermittent and rising US output has largely played a substituting role, with global net LNG supply set to fall in 2026.” The report also warned that “going forward, the prices of oil and LNG are likely to be higher than they otherwise might have been before the Middle East conflict.”
How it came about
Australia’s LNG sector, which includes operators such as Woodside Energy, Santos and Shell, has traditionally relied on stable Asian and European demand. The disruption of the Hormuz corridor and the redirection of cargoes from the Gulf have forced buyers to turn to Australian supply, pushing the Japan Korea Marker – the benchmark price for one‑off LNG in North Asia – above $25 US per million British thermal units, more than double historic averages of $10‑11. Earlier Felo coverage linked the broader regional tension to rising energy costs in other markets, such as heating oil in the United States (heating‑oil‑prices) and the impact on American consumers (gas‑prices‑impact‑working‑class).
Key facts
- Australian LNG revenue this financial year is now projected at up to $70 billion, $23 billion higher than earlier forecasts. (smh.com.au)
- One‑off LNG cargoes are fetching more than double pre‑war prices due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. (smh.com.au)
- The Japan Korea Marker price for Australian LNG rose above $25 US per MMBtu, compared with historic averages of $10‑11. (smh.com.au)
Sources
- [1] smh.com.au — originally reported as “Gas prices: The US-Iran war is making Australia’s gas industry richer”
