Brief
Iran may escalate war as US pressure deepens, experts warn
Analysts warn that Iran might broaden its campaign if U.S. pressure continues.
By Felo News Desk · Published
In an opinion piece published on October 4, 2026, the Sydney Morning Herald cited several experts who argue that Iran could choose to expand its war efforts against the United States as the conflict drags on.
What happened
The article notes that President Donald Trump announced the war on Iran in early March and, nine days later, boasted of decisive military success and lower oil prices. Since then, the United States has spent over $43 billion, according to a Pentagon estimate, and diesel prices in parts of California have reached $9.99 per gallon. The Iranian rial has collapsed to more than 2.5 million rials per U.S. dollar, a tenth of its 2021 value.
What the reports add
Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group, writing in Foreign Affairs, described the conflict as “nowhere near over.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News in September that the blockade on Iran was “working like nothing we’ve ever seen.” Economist Mark Zandi estimated that higher fuel costs have cost the typical American family about $1,000.
What was said
Vali Nasr, an Iran expert at Johns Hopkins SAIS, warned that Iran may conclude it must “shoot its way out,” suggesting possible attacks on shipping and oil infrastructure in the Persian Gulf. Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, an Iran watcher at a British think‑tank, said Iran has not yet waged a scorched‑earth campaign but could do so if the situation persists.
How it came about
The piece links the current escalation to Trump’s early rhetoric, the appointment of real‑estate investors Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff as chief negotiators, and the broader economic strain on Iran caused by the U.S. blockade and war spending.
Key facts
- President Donald Trump announced a war on Iran in early March 2026. (smh.com.au)
- The United States has spent more than $43 billion on the war, per a low‑ball Pentagon estimate. (smh.com.au)
- Iran's rial fell to over 2.5 million per U.S. dollar, a tenth of its 2021 value. (smh.com.au)
- Experts warn Iran may increase attacks on shipping and oil infrastructure if pressure continues. (smh.com.au)
Sources
- [1] smh.com.au — originally reported as “Why Iran could choose to escalate the war”
