Brief
Victorian poll shows Wilson gaining traction as Carroll’s popularity falls
The latest Resolve Political Monitor shows a swing toward Opposition leader Jess Wilson and a decline in Premier Ben Carroll’s personal ratings.
By Felo News Desk · Published
Victorians are sharpening their electoral choices ahead of the state election on 28 November, according to a Resolve Political Monitor released on 12 October 2026. The poll shows Premier Ben Carroll’s personal popularity slipping 9 points to a net‑likeability rating of minus 11, while Opposition leader Jess Wilson’s personal likeability rose 4 points to 23.
What happened
The online survey of 1,000 respondents recorded primary voting intentions of 25 % for Labor, 28 % for the Coalition and 23 % for One Nation. The Victorian Greens saw a 3‑point increase to 5 % primary support, while independents fell to 4 %. When asked about the issues most likely to decide their vote, 33 % named the state’s economy and finances, and 24 % cited crime and policing. Government spending and debt attracted 27 % of respondents, and youth crime 21 %.
What the report adds
Resolve founder Jim Reed said the poll indicates fewer undecided voters each month, suggesting voters are beginning to lock in their choices. He noted that while some Victorians were willing to give Carroll a “fair go,” growing scepticism is reflected in his declining net‑likeability and preferred‑premier scores.
What was said
Jim Reed told the outlet, “Fewer and fewer voters are telling us they are uncommitted each month, and the number of people undecided on their preferred leader is also dropping, which is evidence that they are starting to pay attention and lock in.” He added, “Victorians were willing to give Carroll a fair go, but after a few months they are increasingly unconvinced. His net likeability and preferred premier metrics are both down. And Wilson is benefiting from that.”
How it came about
The poll follows a series of Resolve surveys tracking Victorian voter sentiment since early 2025. Earlier reports noted that economic management and crime have consistently topped priority lists, a trend reinforced by the latest findings. The swing toward Wilson aligns with her recent focus on law‑and‑order policies and fiscal prudence, while Carroll’s government has faced criticism over rising debt and youth crime spikes.
Key facts
- Premier Ben Carroll’s net‑likeability rating fell 9 points to minus 11. (smh.com.au)
- Opposition leader Jess Wilson’s personal likeability rose 4 points to 23. (smh.com.au)
- Primary voting intentions were 25 % Labor, 28 % Coalition, 23 % One Nation. (smh.com.au)
- 33 % of respondents said the economy and finances were their top voting issue. (smh.com.au)
- 24 % said crime and policing were their top voting issue. (smh.com.au)
Sources
- [1] smh.com.au — originally reported as “Victorian election 2026: How the economy, crime and leadership ratings are shaping the race”
