Brief
New study says Thwaites Glacier could raise sea level by 1.2 inches by 2100
The revised model predicts twice the earlier sea‑level contribution from the glacier, highlighting faster basal melting.
By Felo News Desk · Published
Scientists have updated their projections for Antarctica's Thwaites Glacier, concluding that it could contribute up to 1.2 inches (30 mm) of sea‑level rise by 2100, according to a study published in *Nature Communications*.
What happened
The research team, led by Dr Mattia Poinelli of UC Irvine and co‑author Professor Eric Rignot of the University of California, built a new computer model that incorporates more detailed physics of how warm ocean water interacts with the glacier’s base. Satellite data from the Finnish ICEYE constellation showed seawater penetrating several miles beneath the grounded ice, lifting it during tidal cycles and accelerating melt.
What the reports add
The Daily Mail article notes that earlier models predicted a sea‑level contribution of about 0.6 inches (15 mm) by the end of the century, whereas the new model doubles that figure to 1.2 inches. It also emphasizes that the glacier covers an area larger than Great Britain and that a total collapse, though not imminent, would raise global sea levels by roughly 26 inches (65 cm).
What was said
Professor Rignot is quoted as saying, “Most projections to date have struggled to match the rapidity of the mass loss because of missing physics; our new model with more complete physics can match the record and then produces projections that are twice as large as before.” Dr Poinelli added, “Glaciologists have long based their assumptions of ice sheet dynamics on the ‘grounding line’, a discrete, narrow and mostly stable demarcation where ice leaves the land and begins floating on water. We have come to acknowledge a different arrangement beneath Earth’s major ocean‑terminating glaciers.”
How it came about
The study follows years of observations that Thwaites Glacier has been thinning and retreating faster than earlier models anticipated. Satellite measurements have repeatedly shown the glacier moving into the ocean at a speed exceeding prior expectations, prompting the researchers to revise the underlying physics in their simulations.
Key facts
- Thwaites Glacier could add up to 1.2 inches (30 mm) of sea level by 2100 (dailymail.co.uk)
- The new model uses detailed physics of warm water penetrating the glacier’s grounding zone (dailymail.co.uk)
- Previous estimates for the glacier’s contribution by 2100 were about 0.6 inches (15 mm) (dailymail.co.uk)
Sources
- [1] dailymail.co.uk — originally reported as “Antarctica's 'Doomsday Glacier' is even more dangerous than we thought”
