Brief
WMO warns Super El Niño will stay at peak strength through February 2027
The WMO predicts near‑100 % chance the climate pattern will persist through February 2027, releasing record ocean heat.
By Felo News Desk · Published
Scientists say the current Super El Niño is intensifying and is expected to remain at near‑maximum strength well into next year, according to a new forecast from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
What happened
The WMO’s latest update projects that the El Niño will continue strengthening ahead of a forecasted peak in December 2026 and persist through February 2027. The agency estimates a near‑100 % chance the phenomenon will remain active during that period, potentially making it one of the strongest events recorded since at least 1950.
What the reports add
The Daily Mail notes that the Niño 3.4 index rose from 1.6 °C above normal in June to 2.5 °C above normal in August, underscoring rapid strengthening. The WMO forecasts an October‑to‑December average temperature anomaly of about 3.7 °C, with conditions peaking around December. Meteorologist Ryan Maue posted on X that new maps show “Earth almost entirely in the red,” indicating a heightened likelihood of above‑average temperatures across most of the globe, except the United States.
What was said
WMO Secretary‑General Celeste Saulo said, “El Niño is firmly established and strengthening rapidly.” She added that the event does not create new heat but releases heat that has accumulated beneath the ocean surface, describing the underlying ocean as “the warmest we’ve ever measured.”
How it came about
The current El Niño follows a series of unusually warm Pacific conditions that have been building over the past year. Earlier this month, the WMO highlighted the unprecedented scale of heat stored in the upper ocean, a factor that scientists say is driving the current intensity. The organization’s forecast builds on earlier seasonal outlooks that warned of a strong El Niño but now indicates a longer‑lasting and hotter phase.
Key facts
- The WMO predicts a near‑100 % chance that Super El Niño will persist through February 2027. (dailymail.co.uk)
- The Niño 3.4 index rose from 1.6 °C above normal in June to 2.5 °C above normal in August. (dailymail.co.uk)
- WMO forecasts an October‑to‑December average temperature anomaly of about 3.7 °C. (dailymail.co.uk)
- WMO Secretary‑General Celeste Saulo said the event is releasing heat from the warmest measured ocean water. (dailymail.co.uk)
- Meteorologist Ryan Maue said new maps show Earth almost entirely in the red, indicating widespread above‑average temperatures. (dailymail.co.uk)
Sources
- [1] dailymail.co.uk — originally reported as “Scientists warn 'super-duper' El Niño is still intensifying”
