Brief
New calculations suggest solar system will go chaotic a billion years after Sun becomes a white dwarf
A study co‑authored by Caltech physicist Jim Fuller predicts the outer planets could be ejected or collide soon after the Sun turns into a white dwarf.
By Felo News Desk · Published
Scientists have published new calculations indicating that the solar system could become chaotic about one billion years after the Sun becomes a white dwarf, a timescale 100 times shorter than earlier estimates. The findings were reported by the Daily Mail on 17 October 2026.
What happened
The Sun is expected to exhaust its hydrogen fuel in roughly four to five billion years, expand into a red giant and later shed its outer layers, leaving a dense white dwarf core. Earlier models assumed the Sun would lose about 46 percent of its mass in a smooth, steady wind, allowing the outer planets to remain on stable orbits for up to 100 billion years. The new study, however, suggests the Sun’s mass loss will occur in a series of discrete, directional ejection events – described by the authors as “kicks”. These kicks could dramatically alter the solar system’s centre of gravity, causing planetary orbits to cross, swap, or even be ejected.
What the reports add
The Daily Mail notes that the research team used data from the European Space Agency’s Gaia observatory, which shows that stars experience a bumpier transition from red giant to white dwarf than previously thought. The paper argues that at least one outer planet is likely to be ejected or collide with another planet shortly after the Sun’s white‑dwarf phase begins. The article also highlights that the outer planets were previously thought to remain stable for at least 100 billion years, with Uranus potentially stable for a quintillion years, but the new modelling overturns those expectations.
What was said
Co‑author Professor Jim Fuller, a theoretical physicist at Caltech, told the Daily Mail: “We don’t know exactly what will happen because the process is chaotic. But our paper shows that at least one of the outer solar system planets will likely be ejected or collide with one another, soon after the Sun turns into a white dwarf.” He also explained that the Sun’s mass‑loss “will proceed through discrete ejection events; similar to, but much larger than, coronal mass ejections.”
How it came about
The study builds on earlier Felo News coverage that reported on the possibility of solar‑system destabilisation within a billion years of the Sun’s white‑dwarf transition (see Solar system may destabilise within a billion years of Sun becoming a white dwarf). That earlier article highlighted the same mechanism of random, directional mass‑loss events, which the new calculations now quantify and extend with Gaia data.
Key facts
- The Sun will become a white dwarf in about eight billion years. (dailymail.co.uk)
- New modelling suggests planetary orbits could become chaotic one billion years after the Sun’s white‑dwarf transition. (dailymail.co.uk)
- The study proposes the Sun’s mass loss will occur in discrete ‘kicks’ rather than a smooth wind. (dailymail.co.uk)
- At least one outer planet may be ejected or collide with another planet after the Sun becomes a white dwarf. (dailymail.co.uk)
Sources
- [1] dailymail.co.uk — originally reported as “Scientists say the world will end 100 times sooner than we thought”
