Brief

Premier League data shows rise in goals but record number of draws and under‑performing xG

The first five weeks show higher goal output, a historic draw rate and widespread shortfall against expected‑goals figures.

By Felo News Desk · Published Sat, 10 Oct 2026 01:52:21 GMT

The Guardian's statistical review of the opening five match weeks of the 2026‑27 Premier League finds that while non‑penalty goals per game have risen to 2.70, the season also features the highest proportion of drawn games on record and a significant gap between actual goals and expected‑goals (xG) figures.

Across the league, matches have averaged 2.88 non‑penalty xG per game, the second‑highest level in the past six seasons. The Guardian notes that if every team converted at the par rate, the league would have produced almost two extra goals per week. Despite the higher scoring rate, the number of draws is unprecedented, suggesting that many matches were decided by narrow margins that could have swung with better finishing.

Fourteen clubs have scored fewer goals than their xG would predict, up from ten in the previous season. Eight of those teams sit within a goal of their underlying numbers and could see a quick turnaround, while the remaining six are split between eight under‑achieving clubs and four that are meeting expectations.

Week‑by‑week analysis shows 24 instances where a team scored at least one goal fewer than its xG implied it should have, double the frequency of the opening 50 games last season. The Guardian dismisses chance quality as a cause, pointing out that the expected‑goals value per non‑penalty shot has barely shifted when rounded to two decimal places.

Touch statistics in the opposition penalty area have remained largely static, with an average of 24.8 touches per game, a drop of just 0.6 from the previous season. However, the distribution varies: four of last season’s top‑five teams have recorded fewer box touches, notably Aston Villa and Liverpool, each losing roughly a third of their averages. Manchester United is the sole top‑five side to increase its box touches, though the Guardian cautions that United’s recent opposition has been weak – five of their eight goals came against Championship runners‑up Ipswich.

United leads the league for non‑penalty shots but ranks joint‑second from the bottom for average expected‑goal value. Their top non‑penalty xG contributor, Bryan Mbeumo, is one of ten players who have scored at least one goal fewer than his xG suggests, mirroring his 1.19‑goal shortfall from the previous season.

Key facts

Average non‑penalty goals per game have risen to 2.70 in 2026‑27. (theguardian.com)
Matches average 2.88 non‑penalty expected goals, the second‑most in six seasons. (theguardian.com)
Fourteen clubs have scored fewer goals than their xG predicts, up from ten last season. (theguardian.com)
There were 24 instances of teams under‑scoring by at least one goal versus xG, twice last season's rate. (theguardian.com)
Manchester United tops non‑penalty shots but is joint‑second lowest for average xG value. (theguardian.com)