Man United tops Squawka’s xG Premier League table

Squawka’s expected‑goals (xG) table places Manchester United at the top of the Premier League after five matches, a stark contrast to their real‑world record. Arsenal drop to third after a 3‑0 loss to Brighton, and Tottenham climb to 12th in the xG rankings despite a winless start. The alternative…

By Felo News Desk · Published Thu, 24 Sep 2026 14:00:50 GMT

In a fresh take on the Premier League standings, Squawka’s alternative table—built on expected goals (xG)—has Manchester United sitting on top after five games. The Red Devils have gone unbeaten, earning 11 points from a possible 15 in the xG model, compared with the five points they actually collected. The table also shows Arsenal slipping to third after a shock 3‑0 defeat to Brighton, while Tottenham move up to 12th, a significant jump from their bottom‑of‑table position in the real league table.

How the xG table works

Unlike the traditional points system that rewards the final scoreline, Squawka’s xG table translates the quality and quantity of chances created and conceded into a projected score. Each match’s expected goals for both teams are calculated, and a hypothetical result is derived. If the projected score is a win, the team earns three points; a draw gives one point; a loss gives none. This method aims to reflect the underlying performance rather than the luck or officiating that can influence a game’s outcome.

Manchester United’s surprising xG performance

United’s five‑match xG record reads W3 D2 L0, a stark contrast to their real record of W1 D2 L2. The most striking example is their opening‑day loss to Hull City. The match finished 2‑0 to Hull, but the xG figures were 1.27 for United and 1.79 for Hull, suggesting a projected 2‑1 victory for the visitors. In the second game, United beat Ipswich Town 5‑2; the xG reading of 3.94 to 1.26 translated into a 4‑1 win in the alternative table. The 2‑2 draw with Everton turned into a 1‑1 draw (xG 1.09 to 0.81), and the 1‑1 draw with Fulham became a 2‑1 win (xG 1.43 to 2.14). Even the 1‑0 loss to Manchester City—where the xG was 0.88 to 0.87—was a projected 1‑1 draw, giving United a point in the alternative standings.

Arsenal’s slide and Brighton’s rise

Arsenal’s 3‑0 defeat to Brighton on Saturday was a turning point in the xG table. In the real world, it was Arsenal’s first league loss of the season, but the xG figures—1.02 for Arsenal versus 2.12 for Brighton—suggest a 2‑1 victory for the Seagulls. Consequently, Brighton leapfrogged Arsenal to second place on goal difference, while Arsenal dropped to third. Manchester City remain in fourth, and Brentford completes the top five in the alternative standings.

Tottenham’s unexpected climb

Tottenham Hotspur, managed by Roberto De Zerbi, have struggled in the real league, sitting at the bottom with just two points after five matches. However, their xG record shows six points, moving them up to 12th place in the alternative table. The Spurs’ first league goal came in a 3‑2 loss to Aston Villa, but their chances created and conceded have been better than the results suggest. The xG model therefore paints a more optimistic picture of their early season form.

What this means for the rest of the season

While the xG table offers an intriguing lens, it does not replace the official standings. It highlights that United’s unbeaten run may be more about quality of chances than luck, and that Arsenal’s dip could be a statistical anomaly. For Tottenham, the alternative ranking suggests potential for improvement if they convert chances into goals. As the season progresses, teams will need to focus not only on results but also on creating high‑quality opportunities and tightening their defense to improve their xG profile.

Key facts

Manchester United tops the alternative xG table with 11 points after five matches.
Arsenal fall to third following a 3‑0 loss to Brighton, who climb to second.
Tottenham move up to 12th in the xG standings despite a winless start.
The xG model translates chances into projected results, offering a fresh perspective on team performance.
Manchester United’s real record (W1 D2 L2) contrasts sharply with their xG record (W3 D2 L0).

Why it matters

The xG table offers a deeper understanding of team performance by focusing on the quality of chances rather than just outcomes, helping fans and analysts gauge true strengths and weaknesses.