Brief
One Nation’s low‑migration plan could add $275 billion to Australia’s debt
A Parliamentary Budget Office model finds One Nation’s proposal would raise debt and shrink the workforce, prompting criticism from former finance minister Mathias Cormann.
By Felo News Desk · Published
Australia’s budget could stay in deficit for more than a decade if One Nation’s lower‑migration plan is adopted, a new analysis using Parliamentary Budget Office tools suggests. The model, released on 18 October 2026, estimates an extra $275 billion in national debt and a loss of $212 billion in economic output by the mid‑2020s, according to the Sydney Morning Herald.
What happened
The analysis examined three scenarios proposed by One Nation leader Pauline Hanson, including a three‑year “negative migration” plan that would cut net overseas migration to levels below current targets. Over a ten‑year horizon, the model projects the debt increase to $275 billion and a reduction of about 820,000 tax‑paying workers. The report also notes that cutting migration to the Coalition’s preferred levels would still add roughly $150 billion to debt.
What the report adds
The study highlights that a sharp reduction in migrant labour would affect sectors reliant on temporary visas, such as hospitality, aged‑care and retail. It points to recent backlash against the Labor government’s decision to limit working‑holiday visas, which was intended to curb net migration quickly. The Australian Hotels Association responded with an AI‑generated advertisement depicting services collapsing as migrant workers disappear.
What was said
Former Coalition finance minister Mathias Cormann, now head of the OECD, warned on Saturday that “arbitrary migration caps” could harm businesses, hospitals and universities. He told a speech that an ageing country choosing to shrink its working‑age population while promising higher spending on health, care and defence “has not developed a plan. It has put forward a contradiction.”
How it came about
The analysis follows growing public anxiety about immigration and political pressure on parties to address it. Earlier this month, One Nation’s New South Wales leader Mike Newman faced scrutiny over $211,000 in taxpayer‑funded travel, illustrating the party’s broader focus on fiscal issues. The debate occurs against a backdrop of rising debt concerns internationally, such as the G24’s warning on 13 October that debt burdens threaten growth in developing nations.
Key facts
- One Nation’s three‑year negative migration scenario could add $275 billion to Australia’s debt. (smh.com.au)
- The same scenario may reduce economic output by $212 billion and cut 820,000 tax‑paying workers by the mid‑2020s. (smh.com.au)
- Former finance minister Mathias Cormann warned that arbitrary migration caps would harm businesses, hospitals and universities. (smh.com.au)
Sources
- [1] smh.com.au — originally reported as “Migration: How One Nation’s plans would drive up debt by $275b”
