Brief

Crude exports via the Strait of Hormuz near pre‑war levels, analysts say

In September, crude shipments through the Hormuz corridor returned to pre‑war volumes, but diesel supplies remain constrained, pushing UK prices to record highs.

By Felo News Desk · Published Fri, 02 Oct 2026 01:52:40 GMT

According to trade‑intelligence firm Kpler, about 16.5 million barrels of crude oil left the Gulf region in September, a volume that matches the pre‑war average when Iran’s war‑time disruptions are excluded.

The surge reflects a shift away from the strait itself: roughly 40% of regional crude now moves through Saudi and Emirati pipelines, up from 17% before the conflict began on 28 February. Saudi Arabia’s east‑west pipeline, damaged in earlier drone attacks, resumed operations in late September, allowing exports from the Red Sea port of Yanbu.

Despite the rebound in crude, refined‑product flows such as diesel remain limited. Kpler analysts noted that less than 20% of pre‑war refined‑product volumes are currently shipped through Hormuz, contributing to a sharp rise in diesel prices. In the United Kingdom, the average diesel price hit an all‑time high of 199.18 pence per litre on Monday, with many forecourts reporting prices above £2 per litre.

Transport methods have also adapted. The majority of crude that still transits the strait is carried by a shuttle fleet of very large crude carriers that switch off satellite transponders. Ship‑to‑ship transfers occur in open water off Oman or the UAE port of Fujairah, where tankers anchor for the hand‑over.

US military vessels continue to escort some ships, but analysts warned that new routes do not eliminate risk. “New routes emerge, cargos are rerouted, risk is priced in and absorbed. The danger is assuming that resilience equals security. It doesn’t,” one analyst named Rich told the Guardian.

Key facts

• Crude exports from the Gulf reached 16.5 million barrels per day in September, matching pre‑war averages. (theguardian.com)
• Around 40% of regional crude now bypasses the Strait of Hormuz via Saudi and Emirati pipelines. (theguardian.com)
• UK diesel prices hit a record 199.18 pence per litre, with many stations above £2 per litre. (theguardian.com)
• Less than 20% of pre‑war refined‑product volumes are currently shipped through Hormuz. (theguardian.com)
• Ship‑to‑ship transfers are taking place off Oman and Fujairah as vessels turn off transponders. (theguardian.com)

Sources

• [1] theguardian.com — originally reported as “Crude oil exports from strait of Hormuz largely return to pre-war levels”