As the last US troops pack up in Iraq, militias signal their weapons will stay
U.S. forces will leave Iraq at month’s end, but Iran‑aligned militias refuse to disarm, leaving a security vacuum. The Iraqi government faces pressure to integrate or neutralize these groups while balancing Kurdish concerns and regional threats.
The United States will complete its final withdrawal from Iraq by September 30, ending a 20‑year military presence that began with the 2003 invasion. Yet, as the last U.S. soldiers pack up, a stark contrast emerges: Iran‑backed Iraqi militias have signaled that they will keep their weapons, leaving Iraq’s security landscape in a precarious state.
U.S. Withdrawal Timeline and Rationale
Washington’s decision to pull out stems from a 2024 agreement with Baghdad that the U.S. would wind down its counter‑terrorism mission after the Islamic State threat receded. The last U.S. bases, primarily in the semi‑autonomous Kurdish region of northern Iraq, will be dismantled and equipment—including air‑defense systems—removed. The troops, numbering in the hundreds, will be redeployed to Jordan and other regional partners. A U.S. military source, speaking anonymously, said the withdrawal would reduce U.S. risk, as the region has become a target for Iranian and militia attacks since the U.S. and Israel launched a war against Iran on February 28.
While the U.S. cites the diminished threat from Islamic State, it remains wary of the militias’ capacity to launch attacks on neighboring countries such as Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Israel. Washington has previously struck militia sites in Iraq in retaliation for cross‑border attacks and has imposed sanctions on some groups.
Militia Disarmament: A Stalemate
Iraq’s government has tied the U.S. withdrawal to an ultimatum for militias to lay down arms. However, key groups—Kataib Hezbollah, Harakat al‑Nujaba, and Kataib Sayyid al‑Shuhada—have rejected the proposal or set conditions that the government is unlikely to meet. These militias, closely linked to Iran, insist that disarmament would only occur if the Kurdish peshmerga were brought under central control and Iranian Kurdish dissidents and the PKK were expelled from the region.
In a panel convened by the Atlantic Center think tank, analyst Sajad Jiyad noted that “there will be no disarming of any groups by the 30th of September.” While some smaller militias have agreed to hand over weapons, the most powerful factions remain unmoved. An official from one of the Iran‑backed militias stated that the groups have no intention of surrendering weapons and that discussions will focus on regulating rather than confiscating arms.
Impact on the Kurdish Region
The Kurdish region, which has hosted U.S. air‑defense installations, now faces heightened vulnerability. Experts warn that without U.S. protection, the area could become an easier target for Iranian‑aligned forces. Kurdish leaders, including Prime Minister Masrour Barzani, have expressed concern over the potential for increased attacks on energy facilities and dissident bases.
In response, the Iraqi government is reportedly close to procuring new air‑defense systems from South Korea, Turkey, and the U.S., with plans to deploy them strategically to safeguard Iraqi airspace, including the Kurdistan region. The withdrawal is expected to expose the region further, potentially prompting a shift in the balance of power between Kurdish forces and Iran‑backed militias.
What Happens Next?
The Iraqi government’s next steps remain uncertain. While it aims to bring armed factions under the umbrella of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) and the Iraqi army, the process of integrating or dissolving these militias is complex. The government’s strategy involves handing over “dynamic weapons” such as missiles and long‑range aircraft to central leadership, then dissolving individual factions under PMF command.
Meanwhile, the U.S. will continue to monitor the situation, ready to respond to any escalation. The region’s stability hinges on whether Baghdad can negotiate with militias, secure Kurdish cooperation, and maintain a robust defense posture without U.S. forces on the ground.
Regional Repercussions
Iran’s influence in Iraq remains strong, and Tehran is unlikely to relinquish leverage in the country. The U.S. withdrawal could embolden Iranian‑backed militias to intensify attacks on U.S. and allied targets. The potential for increased cross‑border incidents with Saudi Arabia and Israel remains a looming threat, underscoring the delicate balance Iraq must maintain to prevent a resurgence of violence.
In summary, while the U.S. ends its military mission in Iraq, the unresolved status of Iran‑aligned militias and the Kurdish region’s security concerns create a volatile environment. The coming weeks will test Iraq’s capacity to manage its armed factions and protect its sovereignty without foreign troops.
Why it matters
The U.S. exit marks a pivotal shift in Iraq’s security architecture, while the militias’ refusal to disarm threatens regional stability and could spark new conflicts.
Key points
- U.S. to leave Iraq by Sept. 30, ending 20‑year presence
- Iran‑backed militias refuse to disarm, citing conditions
- Kurdish region faces increased vulnerability without U.S. air defenses
- Iraq plans to integrate militias into PMF and army
- Regional tensions with Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Iran remain high
Frequently asked questions
Why is the U.S. withdrawing from Iraq?
The U.S. concluded that the Islamic State threat has largely been neutralized and agreed with Iraq to wind down its counter‑terrorism mission.
Will Iraq be able to manage the militias alone?
Iraq aims to bring militias under its central command via the Popular Mobilization Forces, but many groups have set conditions that may delay integration.
What happens to the U.S. equipment left behind?
All U.S. military equipment, including air‑defense systems, will be removed and the bases dismantled by the end of September.
