Ukraine war briefing: Russia exporting more oil now than before war despite sanctions – report
A Finnish think‑tank finds that Russia's oil exports are still 6% above pre‑invasion volumes in 2024, even as revenue from fossil fuels has slipped below 2022 levels. The analysis calls for tighter sanctions enforcement while highlighting loopholes that keep the flow to China, India and Turkey aliv…
Russia continues to ship more crude oil than it did before its February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, according to a new report from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (Crea), a Helsinki‑based think‑tank. The study, released on Tuesday, shows that fourth‑year export volumes are roughly 6% higher than the pre‑war baseline, even though Western sanctions have trimmed overall earnings from fossil fuels.
Export volumes stay high, revenue falls
Crea’s analysis tracks monthly shipment data from Russian ports and compares it with the 2021‑2022 period that preceded the conflict. While the total tonnage of crude leaving Russian terminals has risen, the price Russia receives for that oil has dropped sharply. Discounted pricing, forced by sanctions and the loss of premium markets, has pushed total oil revenue below the level recorded before the invasion.
“We have seen a significant drop in Russian fossil‑fuel export earnings as a result of new measures and greater enforcement,” said Isaac Levi, a senior analyst at Crea and co‑author of the report. “But there are still significant loopholes and areas that have been unaddressed by sanctioning countries,” he added, pointing to the persistence of a so‑called “shadow fleet” that helps Moscow evade restrictions.
Where the oil goes
The report identifies three primary destinations for Russian crude: China, India and Turkey. Together they absorb about 93% of the shipments, underscoring the geopolitical realignment of Moscow’s energy sales. China and India have openly welcomed discounted Russian oil, while Turkey serves as a transit hub that re‑exports the product to Europe and the Middle East.
These markets have become essential for Russia’s war chest, providing cash flow that funds military operations despite the overall revenue dip. The analysts warn that unless the United States, the European Union and their allies close the remaining gaps in sanction enforcement, Moscow will be able to sustain its export levels indefinitely.
Political fallout in Europe
At the same time, the fourth anniversary of the invasion has sparked fresh diplomatic tension within the European Union. Hungary’s government, led by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, blocked a new EU sanctions package and a loan intended to bolster Ukraine’s defence and reconstruction efforts. Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk condemned the move as “political sabotage,” while other EU leaders prepared to travel to Kyiv for a show of solidarity.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy used the anniversary to stress that Russia’s war aims have failed. In a televised address, he said, “Putin has not achieved his goals. He did not break the Ukrainians. He did not win this war.” Zelenskyy pledged that Ukraine will continue to pursue a durable peace and hold Moscow accountable for alleged war crimes.
Security incidents and broader war context
Security incidents added to the volatile backdrop. An explosive device detonated beside a police patrol car in central Moscow, killing an officer and wounding two others. In Ukraine, Russian drone strikes hit the southeastern city of Zaporizhzhia, injuring five people, including a child, and igniting a fire at a factory adjacent to a residential block.
Elsewhere, a blast in Mykolaiv wounded seven police officers, while a similar attack in Lviv was labeled a “terrorist attack” by Kyiv. These incidents illustrate the continued risk of violence beyond the front lines.
International aid and energy politics
Britain announced a fresh assistance package for Ukraine, allocating £20 million for emergency energy support and £30 million for societal resilience and accountability for war‑crime victims. Meanwhile, Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico warned that the country would withhold emergency electricity supplies to Ukraine until oil flows through the Druzhba pipeline—an oil conduit that runs from Russia, through Ukraine, into Central Europe—resume.
Ukrenergo, Ukraine’s national power company, responded that any refusal by Slovakia would not affect the stability of Ukraine’s power system, signalling confidence in alternative supply routes and domestic generation capacity.
What comes next?
The Crea report concludes that tighter coordination among sanction‑issuing nations is essential to choke off the remaining avenues that allow Russia to keep exporting oil at pre‑war volumes. Analysts suggest that future measures could target the shadow fleet’s registration loopholes, increase scrutiny of ship‑to‑ship transfers, and expand secondary sanctions on entities that facilitate the trade.
For Ukraine, the ongoing flow of Russian oil revenue remains a strategic concern, as it funds the very conflict Kyiv is fighting. The combination of diplomatic pressure, targeted sanctions, and continued international aid will shape whether Moscow can sustain its energy‑driven war economy in the months ahead.
Why it matters
Russia’s ability to keep oil exports high despite sanctions fuels its war effort, while gaps in enforcement undermine the effectiveness of Western pressure.
Key points
- Russian crude shipments are 6% above pre‑invasion levels in 2024.
- Oil revenue has fallen below 2022 levels due to forced price discounts.
- China, India and Turkey receive 93% of Russia’s oil exports.
- EU sanctions are hampered by Hungary’s refusal to endorse new measures.
- Analysts call for closing loopholes in the shadow‑fleet network.
Frequently asked questions
Why are Russian oil exports still higher than before the war?
Despite sanctions, Russia has redirected sales to countries like China, India and Turkey that accept discounted crude, and it uses a shadow fleet to evade restrictions.
What impact have sanctions had on Russia’s oil revenue?
Sanctions and price discounts have pushed total oil earnings below the level recorded before the 2022 invasion, even though export volumes remain high.
Which EU country blocked the latest sanctions package for Ukraine?
Hungary, led by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, blocked the new EU sanctions package and related loan for Ukraine.
What does the Crea report recommend to curb Russia’s oil exports?
The report urges tighter enforcement of existing sanctions, closing loopholes in the shadow‑fleet system, and expanding secondary sanctions on facilitators.
