Ukraine war briefing: conflict could end if Russia economically or militarily ‘exhausted’, says Germany’s Merz
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz told the Munich Security Conference that the war in Ukraine will only cease when Russia is exhausted economically or militarily. The briefing featured remarks from French President Emmanuel Macron, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and updates on diplomatic t…
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz used his appearance at the Munich Security Conference to issue a stark warning: the war between Russia and Ukraine will not end until Russia is either economically drained or militarily depleted. Merz framed the gathering as a "seismograph" for transatlantic relations, suggesting that the intensity of the conflict reflects the health of U.S.-European ties.
Merz’s assessment and European security implications
Speaking to an audience of diplomats, defense ministers and journalists, Merz argued that the five‑year‑old war has forced Europe to abandon its post‑Cold‑War "vacation from world history" and re‑engage with hard security challenges. He warned that without a decisive weakening of Russian capacity, the conflict could continue to sap European resources and destabilise the continent.
Merz’s comments came alongside a broader European consensus that any peace settlement must safeguard Ukraine’s sovereignty and prevent future Russian aggression. French President Emmanuel Macron echoed this sentiment, insisting that a deal that does not involve Europe would be incomplete and could set a "calamitous example" for other would‑be aggressors.
Macron’s stance on peace negotiations
Macron stressed that any diplomatic resolution must protect Ukraine, preserve European security and disincentivise Moscow from launching another invasion. He dismissed the notion of urging Ukraine to accept defeat as a "huge strategic mistake," warning that such a narrative would embolden Russia and undermine the credibility of the international order.
During a press briefing, Macron added that while parties could negotiate without European participation, the resulting agreement would lack legitimacy and durability. He called for a framework that includes guarantees for Ukraine’s territorial integrity and a clear deterrent against future Russian expansion.
Ukrainian leadership on ceasefire and elections
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who attended the conference, said a short‑term ceasefire of two to three months could create the conditions for presidential elections in Ukraine. Zelenskyy stressed that any poll must be preceded by a genuine halt to hostilities and robust security guarantees for Kyiv.
He also addressed rumors about former U.S. President Donald Trump’s involvement, noting that Trump has advocated for a "one‑big‑package" peace deal. Zelenskyy argued that sequencing—first a ceasefire, then elections, then a comprehensive settlement—remains essential.
Diplomatic activity beyond Munich
While the Munich forum focused on high‑level rhetoric, parallel diplomatic tracks are moving forward. Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiga reported a conversation with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, during which Beijing expressed willingness to provide additional humanitarian aid to Ukraine. The discussion underscored China’s delicate balancing act between its partnership with Moscow and growing international pressure to assist Kyiv.
In Geneva, a separate set of negotiations is slated to begin on Tuesday, involving a U.S. delegation that includes envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. The talks aim to bring Russian and Ukrainian representatives together for a trilateral dialogue, with the United States seeking to shape the agenda and maintain influence over any prospective ceasefire terms.
Military aid and recent strikes
Britain announced a fresh £540 million weapons package for Ukraine, marking the first time the UK has tapped NATO’s Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List (PURl). The funding will purchase 1,000 Lightweight Multirole Missiles (LMMs) produced in Belfast, bolstering Ukraine’s air‑defence network against nightly Russian missile barrages.
On the ground, the conflict remains volatile. A Ukrainian missile strike hit the Russian border city of Belgorod, killing two civilian workers repairing heating and electricity infrastructure and injuring five others. Regional Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said restoration work would pause until night‑time operations become safe again.
What lies ahead
The Munich Security Conference has highlighted both the urgency and the complexity of ending the war. While European leaders call for a Russia‑exhaustion strategy and insist on a Europe‑centered peace, diplomatic channels in Geneva and ongoing weapons support suggest a multi‑pronged approach. The next weeks will likely see intensified negotiations, further aid commitments, and continued pressure on Moscow to reach a point where economic and military exhaustion make continued aggression untenable.
Why it matters
The war’s continuation threatens European stability and global security; understanding the conditions for a Russian defeat informs policy and diplomatic efforts.
Key points
- Merz says the conflict will end only when Russia is economically or militarily exhausted
- Macron demands any peace deal protect Ukraine and involve Europe
- Zelenskyy links a short ceasefire to possible elections in Ukraine
- Britain uses NATO’s PURl for the first time to fund Ukrainian air‑defence missiles
- Diplomatic talks continue in Geneva with a U.S.‑led trilateral delegation
Frequently asked questions
What did German Chancellor Friedrich Merz say about ending the war in Ukraine?
He warned that the war will only end when Russia is either economically drained or militarily exhausted, emphasizing the need for a decisive weakening of Russian capacity.
Why does French President Emmanuel Macron insist Europe must be part of any peace settlement?
Macron argues that a deal without European involvement would lack legitimacy, fail to protect Ukraine’s sovereignty, and could set a dangerous precedent for future aggressors.
What conditions did President Zelenskyy set for holding elections in Ukraine?
Zelenskyy said a two‑to‑three‑month ceasefire and solid security guarantees for Ukraine are prerequisites for conducting elections.
How is Britain supporting Ukraine’s air defence at the Munich conference?
Britain announced a £540 million package, including 1,000 Lightweight Multirole Missiles bought through NATO’s Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List, to strengthen Ukraine’s air‑defence capabilities.
What diplomatic talks are scheduled to follow the Munich conference?
A separate set of negotiations will start in Geneva, featuring a U.S. delegation with envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner meeting Russian and Ukrainian officials for trilateral talks.
