UK could face gaps on supermarket shelves by summer if Iran war continues
The UK is preparing for possible carbon dioxide shortages caused by a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which could disrupt the supply of CO2 used in food production, beverage manufacturing and refrigeration. Ministers have launched contingency plans, including restarting a mothballed CO2…
The UK is bracing for a potential shortage of carbon dioxide (CO2) that could leave shelves empty this summer if the ongoing Iran war keeps the Strait of Hormuz closed. CO2 is a key ingredient in the food and beverage industry, used to stun livestock, preserve fresh produce, carbonate drinks and power refrigeration systems. A disruption in its supply could ripple through chicken, pork, beer and bottled water, and even affect medical and nuclear cooling systems.
Why CO2 is essential to everyday life
CO2 is a by‑product of industrial processes, yet it plays a vital role across a range of sectors. In farming, it is injected into the atmosphere of slaughterhouses to render animals unconscious before processing. In food packaging, CO2 is used to create a protective atmosphere that slows bacterial growth and extends shelf life for fresh meats, salads and baked goods. Beverage producers rely on it to carbonate soft drinks and beer, while the hospitality sector uses it in cooling units that keep perishable items at safe temperatures. Even hospitals and nuclear power plants depend on CO2 for critical cooling and imaging procedures.
Government contingency plans
To safeguard the supply chain, ministers from No 10, the Treasury and the Ministry of Defence have run a planning exercise called Exercise Turnstone. The Cobra emergency committee, which coordinates national crisis responses, simulated several worst‑case scenarios: the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed into June, no permanent peace deal between the US and Iran, and a mechanical failure at a key UK CO2 plant. The exercise aimed to identify how long the UK could sustain its food and beverage output under such conditions and what actions could mitigate shortages.
Following the exercise, the government announced a £100 million investment to restart the mothballed Ensus bioethanol plant on Teesside. The plant, which had been idle since 2020, will operate for three months to boost domestic CO2 production. Business Secretary Peter Kyle said the move was a precautionary step to keep the economy resilient while the Middle East situation remains fluid.
Industry response and current supply status
Ken Murphy, chief executive of Tesco, Britain’s largest retailer, said the company had not seen any CO2‑related issues in its supply chain so far. He welcomed the government’s proactive planning and the reopening of the Teesside plant, noting that Tesco had successfully navigated previous crises such as Covid‑19 and Brexit. Murphy added that recent supply disruptions were mainly due to extreme weather in southern Spain and North Africa, not CO2 shortages.
Other retailers and food producers have echoed the sentiment that the risk is manageable. No major complaints have emerged from suppliers, and the government spokesperson emphasized that the worst‑case scenarios are planning tools rather than predictions. The spokesperson also highlighted ongoing collaboration with business groups to address potential impacts from Middle East events.
What could happen if CO2 supply falters?
A sustained shortage would force producers to reduce output or find alternative preservation methods, potentially leading to higher prices and reduced availability of certain products. Breweries, in particular, could face production cuts as they prepare for the summer football World Cup, which begins on 11 June. Hospitals and nuclear facilities would need to secure alternative cooling solutions, adding pressure on already strained resources.
While the UK is one of Europe’s largest CO2 users, the country has built a diversified supply chain that includes domestic production and imports from neighboring nations. Nevertheless, the Strait of Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint, as it is the primary shipping lane for a significant portion of global oil and gas exports, which are the main source of industrial CO2.
Looking ahead
Ministers continue to monitor the situation closely and are ready to activate contingency measures if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The government’s focus is on maintaining supply chain resilience and reassuring the public that potential disruptions are being proactively managed. As the summer approaches, stakeholders across the food and beverage sector will keep a close eye on CO2 availability and adjust production plans accordingly.
Why it matters
CO2 shortages could lead to empty supermarket shelves, higher prices, and disruptions in food safety and medical services, affecting everyday life and the economy.
Key points
- UK may face CO2 shortages if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed
- Government plans include restarting a mothballed CO2 plant
- Retailers report no current CO2 issues but remain vigilant
- CO2 is vital for livestock processing, food preservation, and beverage carbonation
- Potential shortages could impact breweries and medical facilities
- Ministers emphasize contingency planning, not predictions
Frequently asked questions
What is the role of CO2 in food production?
CO2 is used to stun livestock, preserve fresh produce, and extend shelf life by inhibiting bacterial growth.
How will the UK mitigate a CO2 shortage?
The government is restarting the Ensus bioethanol plant and has run contingency exercises to prepare for supply disruptions.
Will consumers see higher prices?
If shortages occur, producers may cut output or seek alternatives, potentially raising prices for certain products.
