Ethiopia’s TPLF Re‑ignites Conflict, Shattering 2022 Peace Deal
The TPLF has launched a new offensive against Ethiopian federal forces, breaking the 2022 peace deal that ended the Tigray war. The rebels, joined by six opposition groups, aim to topple Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The conflict threatens regional stability and raises concerns from the African Union,…
By Felo News Desk · Published
The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has reignited hostilities against Ethiopian federal troops, effectively nullifying the peace accord signed in Pretoria in November 2022 that had ended a brutal two‑year war. The new offensive, which began on Thursday, is part of a broader strategy by the TPLF and six allied opposition groups to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed from power in Addis Ababa.
Background: From War to Peace and Back Again
The conflict that erupted in November 2020 between the TPLF and Ethiopian federal forces, backed by Eritrean troops, devastated the northern region of Tigray. According to Ghent University researchers, the war caused an estimated 500,000 civilian deaths through violence, famine, and the collapse of health services. The fighting ended in November 2022 when a peace deal was brokered in Pretoria, South Africa. A caretaker administration loyal to Abiy Ahmed was installed in Mekelle, the Tigray capital, but tensions remained high as the TPLF sought political influence.
In May 2023, the TPLF ousted the regional leader Tadesse Werede, who had reported to Abiy, and installed its own council headed by former Tigrayan commander Debretsion Gebremichael. The move intensified accusations of bad faith from both sides, with civilians in Tigray anticipating a return to armed conflict.
The New Alliance and Its Ambitions
On Sunday, the TPLF announced a coalition with six other opposition groups: the Amhara Fano National Movement, the Oromo Liberation Army, the Ogaden National Liberation Front, the Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front, the Benishangul Peoples’ Liberation Movement, and the Gumuz Peoples’ Democratic Movement. The coalition, dubbed the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, aims to topple Abiy’s Prosperity Party, which won the June 2024 elections that were boycotted by major opposition parties.
Analysts note that this alliance marks a significant shift from the 2020‑2022 war. “Fano is now an ally and Eritrea a backer,” said Kjetil Tronvoll, an academic analyst of Ethiopia at Oslo New University College. “Supply lines are also secured through Eritrea.” This realignment could place unprecedented pressure on Abiy’s government.
Escalation of Hostilities
The fighting has intensified in remote, mountainous areas of Tigray. On Wednesday, TPLF fighters seized the airport in Mekelle from federal police, prompting Ethiopian Airlines to cancel flights to and from the region. The Ethiopian News Agency described the TPLF as a “Trojan horse,” accusing the group of repeatedly inciting conflict. The TPLF, in turn, has accused federal authorities of drone attacks and alleged that Eritrea is supporting its campaign.
Both sides deny responsibility for the latest round of violence, and the conflict’s impact on civilians remains unclear. The African Union and IGAD have called for de‑escalation, while U.S. Ambassador Ervin J. Massinga expressed disappointment, labeling the TPLF’s offensive as “unwinnable” and harmful to the people.
Implications for Ethiopia and the Region
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who rose to power in 2018 and won the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize for mending ties with Eritrea, now faces a coalition that threatens his rule. Abiy’s push for sovereign access to the Eritrean seaport of Assab and attempts to negotiate maritime access through Somaliland have further strained relations with neighboring countries.
The renewed conflict risks destabilizing the Horn of Africa. If the coalition succeeds, it could trigger a power vacuum, encourage further insurgencies, and draw in regional actors. The international community remains wary of a broader spill‑over, especially given Eritrea’s strategic position along the Red Sea.
What Happens Next?
Diplomatic efforts are underway, but the path to a ceasefire remains uncertain. The TPLF’s coalition has not yet announced a timetable for ending hostilities, and the federal government’s response is likely to involve both military and political strategies. Observers warn that any escalation could lead to a humanitarian crisis reminiscent of the 2020‑2022 war.
As the situation unfolds, stakeholders—including the African Union, IGAD, and the United States—continue to urge restraint and a return to dialogue. The international community’s response will be pivotal in shaping Ethiopia’s future stability.
Key facts
- TPLF broke 2022 peace deal
- Coalition aims to topple Abiy Ahmed
- Conflict escalated in Tigray’s mountains
- International calls for de‑escalation
- Potential regional destabilization
Why it matters
The conflict threatens to reverse Ethiopia’s fragile peace, endanger civilians, and destabilize the Horn of Africa, potentially sparking a regional crisis.
Frequently asked questions
What caused the TPLF to restart fighting?
The TPLF’s desire to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and the formation of a broad opposition coalition.
How many groups are in the new coalition?
Seven groups, including the TPLF, Fano, Oromo Liberation Army, and others.
What is the international response?
Calls for de‑escalation from the African Union, IGAD, and the U.S., with concerns over humanitarian impact.
Sources
- [1] independent.co.uk — originally reported as “Renewed fighting in northern Ethiopia effectively shatters peace deal that ended 2022 war”
