‘Total peace’ or ‘all-out war’? Colombian voters face stark choice as rebel attacks surge
As Colombia heads into its 2025 presidential election, violence from FARC dissidents and other armed groups has surged, challenging the nation’s long‑standing peace efforts. The debate over whether to continue Petro’s total peace strategy or return to military action dominates the campaign, with ca…
Colombia’s 2025 general election is unfolding against a backdrop of escalating violence, with attacks from FARC dissidents and other armed groups rising in frequency and intensity. The country’s voters are confronted with a stark decision: continue President Gustavo Petro’s ambitious total peace plan or revert to a more militaristic approach to end the decades‑long conflict.
Surging Violence Ahead of the Election
In the weeks before the first round on 31 May, a bombing on a major road killed 21 people, marking one of the deadliest civilian attacks in Colombia’s recent history. The strike, carried out by the powerful FARC dissident group Central Command (ECM), underscored a broader trend of increasing homicides, kidnappings and massacres across the country. Analysts say the surge is not an isolated incident but part of a pattern of organized violence that has intensified since the 2016 peace deal.
The Legacy of the 2016 Peace Agreement
The 2016 accord between the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) was hailed as a milestone: the main insurgent group agreed to disarm and the country’s overall violence fell sharply. Yet the agreement was only partially implemented. Subsequent administrations moved slowly, and many FARC dissidents rejected the settlement, keeping the conflict alive. The failure to fully integrate all armed groups left a fragile peace that could be easily disrupted.
Petro’s Total Peace Ambition and Its Fallout
When Petro, a former member of the National Liberation Army (ELN), took office in 2022, he pledged to achieve “total peace.” He signed ceasefire agreements with the country’s five largest armed groups, offering reduced sentences, economic incentives and a suspension of military operations in exchange for disarmament. However, the agreements lacked robust monitoring mechanisms and many groups, notably the ELN, denied any truce. Subsequent negotiations stalled, and armed factions exploited temporary ceasefires to expand their control over drug trafficking routes and mining areas.
Petro’s administration also authorized the resumption of artillery assaults and airstrikes, which have caused civilian casualties, including the deaths of young people recruited by criminal groups. The year 2025 has already seen the highest level of violence since the 2016 agreement, and the political arena has been marred by the assassination of Senator Miguel Uribe Turbay and the kidnapping of Senator Aida Quilcué.
Candidates’ Divergent Paths to Security
The left‑wing senator Iván Cepeda, Petro’s chosen successor, supports maintaining the total peace program. In contrast, right‑wing candidates Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia promise to scrap the plan and return to an all‑out war approach. The debate has become a central issue for voters, who must weigh the promise of negotiated settlements against the perceived need for decisive military action.
The Human Cost and Ongoing Threats
Violence has taken a heavy toll: the clash between the ELN and the FARC dissident group Frente 33 in early 2025 left more than 80 dead and 60,000 displaced, the largest forced‑displacement episode in Colombian history. The kidnapping of Senator Quilcué, who had long campaigned for Indigenous rights, highlighted the personal danger faced by political figures. Meanwhile, armed groups continue to threaten the electoral process, with reports of attacks on rallies and campaign events. According to Francisco Daza of the Colombian Peace and Reconciliation Foundation, many citizens are avoiding public gatherings, and large rural areas have become “no‑go zones” for politicians.
Experts argue that Colombia’s future security will depend on a balanced strategy that combines negotiation with targeted military action. Catalina Beltrán of Colombia Risk Analysis cautions against overly ambitious solutions, advocating for a mixed approach that leverages the state’s full toolkit—negotiation, public force and criminal policy—more strategically than in the current administration.
As the election approaches, the nation remains divided over how best to secure lasting peace. The outcome will shape Colombia’s trajectory for years to come, determining whether the country can finally move beyond its legacy of armed conflict or if it will return to a cycle of violence.
Why it matters
Colombia’s choice between negotiated peace and military action will decide the nation’s path to stability, affecting millions of lives and the future of its democratic institutions.
Key points
- Violence from FARC dissidents has surged ahead of the 2025 election.
- Petro’s total peace plan lacked robust monitoring and has largely stalled.
- Right‑wing candidates propose a return to military action.
- The conflict has caused massive displacement and civilian casualties.
- Experts call for a balanced strategy combining negotiation and force.
Frequently asked questions
What was the 2016 peace deal about?
The 2016 agreement was between the Colombian government and the FARC, aiming to end the armed conflict through disarmament, reintegration of fighters, and transitional justice measures.
Who is Gustavo Petro?
Gustavo Petro is the former president of Colombia, a former ELN member who served from 2022 to 2024 and pursued a total peace strategy.
What is the current state of the Colombian armed conflict?
The conflict remains fragmented, with several armed groups—including FARC dissidents and the ELN—continuing to operate, leading to ongoing violence and insecurity.
