Tigray Rebels Launch Offensive, Sparking Fear of New Civil War
Ethiopia’s fragile peace has been rattled as Tigray’s TPLF forces, joined by seven other groups, launched an offensive into Afar and Amhara, seizing airports and towns. The move threatens a return to civil war, raises regional security concerns, and challenges the 2022 Pretoria Agreement.
By Felo News Desk · Published
In a sudden escalation, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and six other armed factions have launched a coordinated assault on Ethiopia’s Afar and Amhara regions, seizing key airports and towns. The offensive marks a stark reversal of the fragile calm that followed the 2022 Pretoria Agreement, and has reignited fears of a nationwide civil war.
What Happened
On Sunday, the TPLF announced the formation of the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, a coalition that explicitly aims to topple Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government. Just days later, TPLF troops seized control of three airports from federal police, prompting Ethiopian Airlines to suspend all flights to the region. The rebels then moved into Afar and Amhara, capturing the border town of Abala and launching heavy artillery strikes on Yallo, a strategic location near the Tigrayan frontier.
In the capital, Addis Ababa, the federal army reported killing 272 TPLF soldiers in attacks across North Wollo Zone, though independent verification of these figures remains pending. Meanwhile, the TPLF’s vice‑president, Amanuel Assefa, declared that the country was now in a state of “full‑blown war” and confirmed that local armed groups in Afar and Amhara were fighting alongside Tigrayan forces.
Background and Context
The conflict traces back to 2020, when the Ethiopian army clashed with the TPLF, the party that ruled Ethiopia from 1991 to 2018. The war, which ended in 2022, claimed roughly 600,000 lives and left deep scars across the nation. The TPLF’s return to the political arena has been fueled by a sense of marginalization after Abiy Ahmed’s rise to power, which many in the Tigrayan community view as a betrayal of the coalition that once united Ethiopia’s diverse ethnic groups.
Historically, Eritrea has been a key ally of the TPLF, providing logistical support during the 2020–2022 war. Analysts now suspect that Eritrea’s involvement may have shifted, as the TPLF’s leadership has stated that they have no concrete information about Eritrean plans to intervene. The new alliance, however, includes Fano—an insurgent group that once fought alongside the government—indicating a dramatic realignment of Ethiopia’s internal power dynamics.
Regional and International Reactions
The African Union’s chair, Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, has called for “utmost restraint” and urged the warring parties to resume direct talks. An EU spokesperson echoed this sentiment, demanding an immediate de‑escalation and a recommitment to the Pretoria Agreement. The Ethiopian president, Taye Atske‑Selassie Amde, denounced the “forces of destruction and mayhem” and accused adversarial elements of interfering in Ethiopia’s internal affairs.
International observers warn that the renewed fighting could spill over into neighboring Sudan and the Red Sea corridor, a region already strained by ongoing conflicts. The potential for a broader regional war raises concerns about the security of vital shipping lanes and the stability of the Horn of Africa.
What Comes Next
As the TPLF and its allies continue to press into Afar and Amhara, the Ethiopian government faces mounting pressure to negotiate. The fate of the 2022 Pretoria Agreement hangs in the balance, and any failure to de‑escalate could plunge the country—and the region—into a new, devastating civil war.
In the coming days, international diplomatic efforts will likely intensify, with the African Union and the European Union seeking to mediate a ceasefire. The world watches closely, aware that Ethiopia’s internal turmoil could have far‑reaching implications for global security and humanitarian aid.
Key facts
- TPLF’s offensive into Afar and Amhara signals a return to open conflict
- Formation of a new rebel coalition aims to topple Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed
- Key airports and towns seized, disrupting transportation and logistics
- International bodies urge restraint and a return to the Pretoria Agreement
- Regional security concerns rise as spillover into Sudan and the Red Sea is feared
Why it matters
The resurgence of armed conflict in Ethiopia threatens to unravel the fragile peace that has held since 2022, with potential ripple effects across the Horn of Africa and beyond.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Pretoria Agreement?
A 2022 peace deal that ended the civil war between the Ethiopian government and the TPLF, establishing a ceasefire and a framework for political reconciliation.
Who are the TPLF’s allies in the new coalition?
The alliance includes the TPLF, Fano, and five other armed groups from across Ethiopia, though specific identities remain largely undisclosed.
Could Eritrea intervene?
The TPLF has said it has no concrete information on Eritrean plans, and the group has not yet requested direct intervention.
What are the international responses?
The African Union and the EU have urged restraint and a return to negotiations, while the Ethiopian government has condemned external interference.
How might this affect the region?
The fighting could destabilize neighboring Sudan, threaten Red Sea shipping lanes, and potentially draw in other regional actors.
Sources
- [1] theguardian.com — originally reported as “Fears of return to war as Tigray rebels launch offensive against Ethiopian army”
