Brief
Poll suggests Netanyahu's far‑right bloc could lose its majority in Oct 27 election
An Agam Labs poll of 4,000 voters projects Netanyahu's bloc will lose its governing majority, leaving three coalition scenarios.
By Felo News Desk · Published
According to a poll of 4,000 Israelis conducted by Agam Labs and the Hebrew University and published on Thursday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's far‑right coalition is unlikely to retain a governing majority in the election scheduled for 27 October.
What happened
The election will fill 120 Knesset seats using proportional representation; a party needs at least 3.25% of the national vote to enter parliament, and 61 seats to command a majority. Netanyahu's Likud currently holds 32 seats and is allied with Shas (11), Religious Zionism (7) and Otzma Yehudit (6), giving the coalition 60 seats, with the opposition at 59 and one unaffiliated seat.
The poll projects the right‑wing “Haredi” bloc – Likud, Shas and allied parties – to win 52‑54 seats, a shortfall of at least seven seats. Likud is expected to drop to 19 seats and Shas to six. The opposition, led by Gadi Eisenkot of the Yashar party, is projected to secure about 20 seats, with liberal partners falling short of out‑voting the right‑wing bloc.
What the reports add
The Independent notes the poll also predicts the hard‑right party Amcha will clear the electoral threshold and enter the Knesset. It outlines three possible post‑election outcomes: a unity government that brings Netanyahu together with more liberal parties, an alternative coalition backed by Arab parties, or a repeat election.
What was said
Dr. Nimrod Nir of Agam Labs told The Independent, “Israel’s election is not a single game, but a tournament – and election day is only the opening round.” He added, “Our polling suggests that neither bloc is likely to secure a governing majority, leaving three possible outcomes: a unity government, an Arab‑backed coalition, or yet another election.”
How it came about
Netanyahu’s government has relied on a narrow coalition of right‑wing and religious parties since the last election. The current poll reflects voter fatigue with the far‑right bloc and the impact of recent security and legal pressures on Netanyahu’s campaign, as reported in earlier Felo coverage of his campaign strategy and the Trump endorsement.
Key facts
- Israel's election is set for 27 October 2026 to fill 120 Knesset seats. (independent.co.uk)
- A poll of 4,000 voters by Agam Labs and Hebrew University suggests Netanyahu's bloc will win 52‑54 seats, short of a majority. (independent.co.uk)
- The poll outlines three possible outcomes: a unity government, an Arab‑backed coalition, or a new election. (independent.co.uk)
Timeline
- 2026-10-20 — A torn‑up election banner for Itamar Ben‑Gvir's Otzma Yehudit displayed near Beit Shemesh.
- 2026-10-25 — Agam Labs poll published, showing Netanyahu's coalition likely to lose its majority.
- 2026-10-27 — Scheduled national election to determine the composition of the Knesset.
Sources
- [1] independent.co.uk — originally reported as “Israeli elections poll tracker: Three scenarios as Netanyahu faces losing power”
