Attacks on Saudi oil expose Iraqi PM’s struggle to control armed factions
Drones launched from Iraqi territory struck Saudi Arabia’s East‑West oil pipeline, pushing global oil prices higher and testing Prime Minister Ali al‑Zaidi’s pledge to bring armed groups under state control. The attack has intensified scrutiny over Iraq’s ability to manage pro‑Iranian factions amid…
On Thursday, black smoke erupted over Saudi Arabia’s East‑West oil pipeline as drones launched from Iraqi territory struck the line, threatening roughly four percent of global oil supplies and sending Brent crude above $108 a barrel. The incident has put Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al‑Zaidi in the spotlight, as he faces a stark test of his promise to bring armed groups under state control before the U.S.-led coalition exits by September 30.
Who Launched the Drones?
No group has claimed responsibility for the strikes. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella of pro‑Iranian factions that includes Kataib Hezbollah, denied involvement, calling the attack “an honour that we do not claim.” Baghdad confirmed the drones originated from Iraqi soil, with security forces tracing launch sites near the Duwayrij River in Maysan province’s al‑Tayeb border area. Lieutenant General Saad Maan, head of Iraq’s Security Media Cell, said an intelligence task force seized a launch platform. A senior source at the Ministry of Interior told Al Jazeera that a resistance splinter group was likely responsible, though this remains unverified.
Experts suggest the possibility of a cell run directly by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or a well‑known armed faction. Michael Knights of Horizon Engage warned that front groups are often used to obscure responsibility, making it harder for governments to retaliate. He noted that the attack could be a deliberate tactic to keep Iraqi authorities in a defensive position.
Political Fallout in Iraq
Under international pressure, al‑Zaidi acted swiftly. He dismissed the Maysan operations commander, formed an investigative committee, and shut several border crossings with Iran to prevent escape routes. He also deployed heavily armed troops in Humvees across Maysan. However, analysts argue these moves are largely symbolic, as the September attack was not the first from Iraqi soil. In July, drones launched from Iraq struck Saudi oil facilities, reportedly with assistance from Houthi fighters based in Iraq. The U.S. and Saudi Arabia retaliated, killing more than 20 members of Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Forces, including Iranian military advisers. The fallout forced al‑Zaidi to postpone a planned trip to Riyadh.
The violence threatens to undermine the warming ties between Iraq and Saudi Arabia. Riyadh had frozen relations after Iraq’s 1990 invasion of Kuwait, only re‑engaging in the mid‑2010s as ISIL rose. Border crossings reopened in 2020, and talks have since focused on investment, electricity links, and transport. Saudi intelligence chief Khalid al‑Humaidan visited Baghdad this month, and Riyadh has refrained from retaliating against the September attack at al‑Zaidi’s request.
Balancing Act Between Tehran and Riyadh
Al‑Zaidi has tried to maintain a delicate balance between Tehran and Riyadh. He met with Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf in August, just shy of a month after his official visit to Tehran, where he met President Masoud Pezeshkian. The prime minister, a multimillionaire business figure seen as a compromise candidate of the governing Shia bloc, is reportedly a preferred option for the U.S. He has ordered Iraqi banks to enforce U.S. sanctions on Hezbollah, asked parliament to draft a law to bring weapons under state control, and declared that those who refuse to disarm will be tried for treason.
Enforcement has repeatedly faltered. In July, troops searching Harakat al‑Nujaba’s compound south of Baghdad were turned away with warning shots. In August, counter‑terrorism forces arrested Abbas al‑Yaqoubi, a senior Nujaba intelligence official, only for a judge to release him 48 hours later. A Baghdad court did jail a Kataib Hezbollah member for 15 years over the March kidnapping of U.S. journalist Shelly Kittleson. These actions, while symbolic, have had limited practical impact on the three factions that still refuse to disarm: Kataib Hezbollah, Nujaba, and Kataib Sayyid al‑Shuhada.
What Happens Next?
Experts say the key question is whether the Iraqi state can act decisively against armed factions. Michael Knights notes that attacking Saudi Arabia was likely an attempt to draw U.S. attention back to faction leaders, but the factions carried out the attack regardless. He believes Iraq’s Counter Terrorism Service had the operational capability to neutralise faction leaders if it had the support of Iraq’s leadership, Washington, and Gulf neighbours. However, doubts remain about U.S. willingness to intervene if the Green Zone were besieged.
For now, the situation remains uncertain. The U.S. coalition’s final withdrawal is looming, and Iraq’s ability to maintain security while balancing regional alliances will be closely watched. The drone attacks have highlighted the fragility of Iraq’s internal security and the challenges facing al‑Zaidi as he navigates domestic and international pressures.
Key Takeaways
- Drones launched from Iraqi soil hit Saudi Arabia’s East‑West oil pipeline, raising global oil prices.
- No group has claimed responsibility; the attack may involve pro‑Iranian factions or a direct IRGC cell.
- Prime Minister Ali al‑Zaidi has taken symbolic actions but faces criticism over limited enforcement.
- Iraq’s armed factions remain largely uncooperative, undermining state control.
- Regional dynamics between Tehran, Riyadh, and Washington complicate Iraq’s security strategy.
Why it matters
The attacks expose Iraq’s fragile control over armed groups and threaten regional stability, potentially impacting global oil markets and U.S. strategic interests in the Middle East.
Key points
- Drone strikes from Iraq hit Saudi pipeline, pushing oil prices higher
- No group has claimed responsibility; likely involvement of pro‑Iranian factions
- Prime Minister al‑Zaidi’s measures seen as largely symbolic
- Iraq’s armed factions remain defiant, challenging state authority
- Regional tensions between Tehran, Riyadh, and Washington intensify
Frequently asked questions
Who is believed to have launched the drones?
The attacks are suspected to involve pro‑Iranian factions such as Kataib Hezbollah or a direct IRGC cell, though no group has claimed responsibility.
What actions has Prime Minister al‑Zaidi taken?
He dismissed a regional commander, formed an investigative committee, closed border crossings, and deployed troops, but enforcement of disarmament remains weak.
How will the U.S. coalition withdrawal affect Iraq?
It may reduce external support for Iraq’s security operations, increasing pressure on the government to manage armed groups independently.
