Rubio Warns Iraq of Balkanisation Threat

Marco Rubio warned that Iraq faces a risk of Balkanisation if its armed factions remain outside state control. The U.S. official cited the need to integrate groups like the Popular Mobilisation Forces into the national security apparatus, amid ongoing tensions with Iran and the looming departure of…

By Felo News Desk · Published Fri, 25 Sep 2026 00:04:23 GMT

On the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York, Secretary of State Marco Rubio cautioned that Iraq could slide into a state of Balkanisation unless its armed factions are brought under central control. The remark followed a meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al‑Zaidi and came as the U.S. prepares to withdraw its remaining troops by the end of September.

What Rubio Means by Balkanisation

The term refers to a country breaking into smaller, rival units—often along ethnic or sectarian lines. In Iraq, the concern is that Iran‑aligned militias could create parallel power structures that undermine the state’s authority. According to senior research fellow Burcu Ozcelik of the Royal United Services Institute, these groups act as conduits for Iranian influence, maintaining separate economic channels, political sway, and even oil smuggling networks.

The Current State of Iraqi Armed Groups

Most of Iraq’s militias fall under the umbrella of the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), a Shia‑led coalition formed to fight ISIS. While the PMF was formally integrated into Iraq’s security forces a decade ago, many factions retain independent command structures and close ties to Tehran. Recent developments show a mixed picture:

Saraya al‑Salam, linked to Shia leader Muqtada al‑Sadr, has been formally integrated into the security apparatus.
Asaib Ahl al‑Haq and Kataib al‑Imam Ali have reached agreements to hand over weapons or regularise their status.
Powerful Iran‑aligned groups such as Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat al‑Nujaba remain defiant, insisting on keeping “resistance weapons.”
Leader Hadi al‑Amiri of the Badr Organisation emphasises that any disarmament is an Iraqi decision, not a foreign imposition.

Ozcelik notes that full disarmament has yet to be achieved and that the real test will be whether these groups can be “Iraq‑ified”—transitioning to an Iraq‑first identity rather than a sect‑oriented one.

Political Context and Timing

Al‑Zaidi’s government has been under pressure to disarm militias since July, when he promised that armed factions would have no justification after September 30. The deadline has since been extended to June 30, 2027. The U.N. meeting in New York was the second high‑level dialogue between al‑Zaidi and U.S. officials since that promise, with President Donald Trump also meeting the Iraqi prime minister that evening.

These talks come at a pivotal moment: the U.S. is set to withdraw its final troops from Iraq, and the country faces ongoing Iranian influence and regional tensions. The U.S. has also imposed sanctions that could affect Iranian airlines’ operations in Iraq, further complicating the security landscape.

Expert Opinions on the Threat Level

Analysts differ on how serious Rubio’s warning is. Ozcelik argues that Balkanisation, in this context, means Iraq risks failing to become a centralised, stable state rather than an imminent territorial split. She describes the militias as a “festering, now structural” challenge that has operated with near impunity within federal Iraq.

Conversely, Zeidon Alkinani of the Arab Perspectives Institute suggests that Rubio’s remarks may be a pressure tactic to push the Iraqi government forward on disarmament. He points to larger historical threats—such as the 2003 U.S. invasion, sectarian violence in 2006‑07, the fight against ISIS, and the 2017 Kurdish independence referendum—as more significant risks to national unity.

Implications for U.S. and Regional Policy

Rubio’s statement underscores the U.S. commitment to stabilising Iraq while curbing Iranian influence. The U.S. has also warned that Iran‑backed militias may have played a role in recent strikes on energy infrastructure in the region, including attacks on the Saudi Arabia East‑West Pipeline from southern Iraq.

For Iraq, the challenge lies in balancing domestic pressures for disarmament—many citizens see militias as corrupt and a conduit for Iranian interference—with the need for a cohesive national security strategy that can withstand external provocations.

As the U.S. exits Iraq, the country’s ability to integrate armed factions into a unified state will be crucial for preventing fragmentation and ensuring long‑term stability.

What Happens Next?

With the U.S. troop withdrawal imminent, Iraq’s government faces a tight window to negotiate with remaining militias and secure a comprehensive disarmament plan. The international community, particularly the U.S. and regional partners, will likely intensify diplomatic efforts to support Iraq’s transition. The outcome will shape not only Iraq’s internal cohesion but also the broader security dynamics of the Middle East.

Key facts

Rubio warns of Balkanisation if Iraqi militias remain outside state control
Most militias are part of the PMF but many keep independent ties to Iran
Key groups have varied responses: some have integrated, others remain defiant
The U.S. is withdrawing troops, adding urgency to disarmament
Experts debate whether the threat is immediate or a longer‑term challenge
Iraq’s political leadership is under pressure to meet extended disarmament deadlines

Why it matters

Iraq’s stability is pivotal for regional security and the fight against extremism. The integration of armed groups into state control could prevent a resurgence of sectarian conflict and curb Iranian influence in the region.

Frequently asked questions

What is Balkanisation in the context of Iraq?

It refers to the risk of Iraq fragmenting into smaller, rival units, often along sectarian lines, due to the presence of independent armed groups.

Which Iraqi armed groups are still resisting disarmament?

Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat al‑Nujaba have explicitly refused to disarm and maintain close ties to Iran.

Why is the U.S. withdrawing troops from Iraq?

The U.S. is ending its military presence to shift focus to other strategic priorities, but this withdrawal adds pressure on Iraq to secure its own security.