Brief
New study estimates 2.2 million Indigenous Australians lived before 1788
The team says the pre‑colonial population was up to seven times earlier estimates, with a 93% loss within eight decades of European arrival.
By Felo News Desk · Published
Scientists have produced a new estimate that roughly 2.22 million Indigenous Australians lived across the continent before the First Fleet arrived in 1788, according to a ScienceDaily release on 15 October 2026. The researchers say about 93% of that population disappeared within less than 80 years of European colonisation.
What happened
The study combined ethnographic observations, archaeological data, genetic reconstructions and computer‑based ecological modelling to calculate how many people different Australian environments could have supported. The median figure of 2.22 million translates to about 0.29 persons per square kilometre. The authors compare this to the long‑standing estimate of roughly 250,000 people derived from 1930s work by anthropologist Alfred Radcliffe‑Brown.
What the reports add
ScienceDaily notes that earlier estimates relied heavily on Radcliffe‑Brown’s calculations, which the new research argues did not fully account for disease, frontier violence and broader structural violence that followed European settlement. By integrating genetics‑based population models with historical and ethnographic sources, the team argues their figure is “substantially higher” than prior numbers.
What was said
Professor Corey Bradshaw, Global Ecology Professor at Flinders University and Chief Investigator at the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Indigenous and Environmental Histories and Futures, is quoted as saying, “Understanding the size of Indigenous populations in Australia before European invasion in 1788 is essential to truth‑telling and reconciliation.”
How it came about
The research builds on a national effort that partners with Indigenous communities to reassess historical population dynamics. It follows earlier Felo News coverage linking the loss of Indigenous fire‑management to Australia’s modern mega‑fire crisis (colonisation-linked-australian-mega-fires), highlighting how historical demographic changes continue to shape contemporary environmental challenges.
Key facts
- The median pre‑colonial Indigenous population is estimated at 2.22 million. (sciencedaily.com)
- The new estimate is up to seven times higher than the 250,000 figure from 1930s research. (sciencedaily.com)
- Approximately 93% of the Indigenous population was lost within less than 80 years after 1788. (sciencedaily.com)
- Researchers used ethnography, archaeology, genetics and computer models to derive the estimate. (sciencedaily.com)
- Professor Corey Bradshaw emphasized the importance of the new numbers for truth‑telling and reconciliation. (sciencedaily.com)
Sources
- [1] sciencedaily.com — originally reported as “Scientists reveal 93% of Australia's Indigenous population was lost in just 73 years”
