Ethiopia’s new rebel alliance threatens Abiy Ahmed
In early September, seven Ethiopian armed groups announced the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, pledging to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The coalition, which unites the TPLF, Fano, OLA, ONLF, Afar, Benishangul and Gumuz movements, could bring fragmented regional conflicts under…
By Felo News Desk · Published
On 3 September, seven Ethiopian armed groups declared the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, vowing to topple Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The coalition brings together the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the Amhara Fano National Movement, the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF), the Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front, the Benishangul Peoples’ Liberation Movement and the Gumuz Peoples’ Democratic Movement.
What the alliance means for Ethiopia
The announcement does not create a single, cohesive army that could march on Addis Ababa. Instead, it aligns seven groups that have historically fought each other and the federal government under different banners. By placing them in one political framework, the alliance could, however, allow the separate conflicts that have plagued Ethiopia for years to be coordinated militarily.
According to Professor Kjetil Tronvoll of Oslo New University College, the new coalition has shifted the dynamics of the war. “We are at war now, aren’t we?” he asked a senior TPLF official, a question that captures the change from isolated skirmishes to a potentially unified front.
Recent escalations and military activity
In the days following the alliance’s formation, drones struck two schools in Alamata, southern Tigray, killing 14 civilians and wounding 22, according to the town’s mayor. The federal government did not immediately comment, and the incident could not be independently verified. By Wednesday, Tigrayan forces reportedly seized Alula Aba Nega International Airport in Mekelle, cutting off a key exit route for civilians and further tightening the government’s grip on the region.
These events come amid a backdrop of ongoing conflict that began in 2020 when the federal army, backed by Eritrean troops and Amhara forces, launched a campaign against the TPLF. The war, which ended in a cease‑fire in November 2022, left an estimated 600,000 people dead and left many questions unanswered, especially regarding the status of Western Tigray.
Challenges for a unified front
While the alliance promises a transitional administration once Abiy is removed, it faces significant hurdles. The coalition’s founding statement, read by Fano commander Zemene Kassie on Tigrai TV, names no single commander for a joint campaign. This absence of a unified command structure raises doubts about whether the groups can coordinate effectively, especially if the alliance were to launch an offensive toward Addis Ababa.
Moreover, the alliance includes groups with divergent territorial claims and histories. The Fano movement, for example, has factions that are willing to ally with the TPLF and others that oppose such cooperation. The OLA, which returned from exile in 2018, has broken away from the coalition in the past and has called for a procedural consensus rather than a shared tactical objective.
Regional implications and the role of Eritrea
Eritrea’s position is ambiguous. While the alliance’s founding statement omits the country, Eritrea has historically been an ally of the TPLF and has reconciled with the Ethiopian government in recent years. Some analysts, including the International Crisis Group, suggest that Eritrea may seek to keep any conflict within Ethiopia’s borders to protect its own security interests.
The new coalition could also complicate Ethiopia’s already fragile relationships with neighboring Sudan and Egypt. Tigrayan forces have reportedly fought alongside Sudanese troops, and Sudan has accused Ethiopia of allowing drone strikes from its soil. These dynamics mean that any escalation in Ethiopia could spill over into regional conflicts.
What’s next for Ethiopia?
Abiy Ahmed’s government remains largely unmoved by the alliance, focusing on maintaining low‑level conflict through drones, proxies and siege tactics. However, the seizure of Mekelle’s airport and the alliance’s growing influence could force the government to confront a more unified opposition. Whether the coalition can translate its political promise into a coordinated military campaign remains to be seen, but the potential for a new, large‑scale conflict in Ethiopia is a growing concern for the international community.
Why this matters
The formation of a seven‑group alliance signals a possible shift in Ethiopia’s civil war, potentially unifying fragmented rebel forces and raising the stakes for both domestic and regional stability.
Key facts
- Seven Ethiopian rebel groups have formed a new alliance to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.
- The coalition unites historically rival factions, potentially coordinating separate conflicts.
- Recent drone attacks and the seizure of Mekelle’s airport indicate escalating violence.
- The alliance lacks a unified command, raising doubts about operational effectiveness.
- Eritrea’s ambiguous role could influence the conflict’s regional dynamics.
Why it matters
The alliance could transform Ethiopia’s fragmented insurgencies into a coordinated threat to the federal government, potentially sparking a new, large‑scale conflict with regional repercussions.
Frequently asked questions
What groups are part of the alliance?
The alliance includes the TPLF, Fano, OLA, ONLF, Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front, Benishangul Peoples’ Liberation Movement and Gumuz Peoples’ Democratic Movement.
Has the alliance launched a coordinated military campaign?
No, the alliance has not yet formed a unified command structure for joint operations.
What impact could the alliance have on Ethiopia’s stability?
It could unify fragmented rebel forces, potentially escalating the civil war and affecting regional security.
Sources
- [1] aljazeera.com — originally reported as “Can Ethiopia’s seven-group rebel alliance challenge Abiy Ahmed?”
