Brief

Burnham and Badenoch see poll rises as UK politics edges toward two‑party race

Opinium poll released after party conferences shows Labour leading, Conservatives gaining and Reform slipping, sparking debate over a return to a two‑horse race.

By Felo News Desk · Published Sun, 11 Oct 2026 18:01:13 GMT

New Opinium polling released on Wednesday shows Labour at 29% support, the Conservatives rising three points to 20% and Reform UK falling to 23% following their annual party conferences, Standard reports.

The poll also records the Greens at 9% after a two‑point dip and the Liberal Democrats unchanged at 9%.

According to the survey, a third of voters viewed Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch's conference speech positively, while 14% reacted negatively and more than half said they had no clear view. The report suggests the speech – which included a pledge to cut inheritance tax – may have delivered an early conference bounce for the Tories.

Labour leader Andy Burnham, who has been in office since entering Downing Street, also benefited from a well‑received conference address, with the poll indicating his party has reached its strongest position since early 2025, as cited by The Independent.

Commentary in the article notes that the rise in support for both Burnham and Badenoch has revived speculation that Britain’s fragmented political landscape could revert to a contest dominated by the two traditional governing parties. The piece adds that Reform UK’s momentum appears to be slowing, while the Green Party’s fortunes are waning after leader Zack Polanski’s loss in the recent Holborn and St Pancras by‑election.

Key facts

Opinium poll puts Labour at 29% support (standard.co.uk)
Conservatives rise three points to 20% after conference (standard.co.uk)
Reform UK falls to 23% in the same poll (standard.co.uk)
One‑third of voters view Badenoch's speech positively, 14% negatively (standard.co.uk)
Greens dip to 9% and Liberal Democrats stay at 9% (standard.co.uk)