Brief

UK profit warnings hit two‑year high ahead of October Budget

EY research finds 65 listed firms warned of lower profits in the quarter to September, citing rising costs, consumer weakness and geopolitical uncertainty.

By Felo News Desk · Published Mon, 19 Oct 2026 00:08:25 GMT

Research by advisory firm EY shows that 65 UK‑listed companies issued profit warnings in the three months to the end of September, the highest level since the final quarter of 2024, according to two Independent reports published on 18 October.

What happened

EY’s profit‑warning report recorded 65 downgrades in Q3, up from 59 in the previous quarter. The rise marks the strongest quarterly tally since the last three months of 2024, when 71 warnings were released. The data cover the period ending 30 September.

What the reports add

Both Independent articles note that 54 % of the warnings cited policy changes and geopolitical uncertainty as the primary driver. A further 38 % specifically referenced the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, while 35 % pointed to rising costs and inflationary pressure. One report adds that 17 % of listed firms have issued at least one warning in the past 12 months.

What was said

Jo Robinson, EY‑Parthenon partner and UK&I financial restructuring leader, told the Independent: “The latest figures show the variety of structural changes and challenges that companies are currently navigating.”

How it came about

The surge in warnings follows a period of weakening consumer confidence and higher input costs ahead of Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s first budget. Felo’s earlier coverage on 21 September highlighted that the UK’s fiscal headroom had shrunk to about £12 bn, a factor that could limit policy options for the upcoming budget (see article). The same macro‑economic pressures are reflected in EY’s findings.

Key facts

65 UK‑listed firms issued profit warnings in Q3 2026 (independent.co.uk)
54% of warnings cited policy change and geopolitical uncertainty (independent.co.uk)
38% of warnings referenced the Middle‑East conflict (independent.co.uk)
35% of warnings pointed to rising costs and inflation (independent.co.uk)
17% of listed firms have issued at least one warning in the past year (independent.co.uk)