Al-Qaida and IS-linked violence in Africa’s Sahel belt set to hit record levels this year
Violence from al-Qaida‑linked JNIM and IS‑affiliated groups in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger has exploded, reaching a record 2,845 incidents in 2025 and threatening to surpass 3,000 in 2026. The surge highlights the Sahel’s growing role as a hub for Islamist militancy, contrasting with the group’s d…
In 2025, Islamist extremists linked to al‑Qaida and the Islamic State intensified attacks across Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, the core of Africa’s Sahel. According to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) conflict monitor, the region recorded 2,845 incidents involving jihadist groups—an increase from just 63 in 2016. Early in 2026, 2,145 events have already been logged, and if the current trend continues, the annual total is likely to exceed 3,000.
Record‑breaking violence in the Sahel
ACLED’s data underscores a stark contrast between the Sahel’s escalating terror activity and the relative decline of al‑Qaida elsewhere. While global terrorism deaths fell to a low in 2025, the Sahel saw a sharp rise, with the United Nations reporting more than 9,000 deaths from security incidents across the three countries that year. The Global Peace Index 2026 report noted that the Sahel remains one of the world’s most lethal hotspots for terrorism.
Key offensives and shifting control
- In April, Jama’at Nusrat ul‑Islam wa al‑Muslimin (JNIM) and the Tuareg‑dominated Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) launched a joint offensive in Mali, targeting strategic towns, government forces and Russian mercenaries. The attack involved ambushes, car bombs, drones and raids.
- The assault resulted in the death of Mali’s defence minister in a suicide attack on his residence in Kati, and the killing of the head of military intelligence.
- JNIM seized the city of Kidal after soldiers fled and Russian mercenaries surrendered, reversing a symbolic victory the Malian junta had achieved three years earlier.
- In Burkina Faso, JNIM has claimed over 130 attacks in 2026, striking closer to the capital Ouagadougou.
- In Niger, JNIM’s activity remains lower, with at least 17 attacks reported, while the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara continues to be more active.
Broader regional context and global implications
Al‑Qaida’s focus has shifted dramatically over the past decade. Twenty‑five years ago, the group’s strategic priorities centered on Afghanistan and Iraq, with Africa playing a peripheral role. Today, the Sahel has become a primary operational zone, as noted by Konrad Adenauer Foundation analyst Ulf Laessing. Despite this expansion, experts point out that the Sahel’s Islamist groups remain highly localized; no attacks on Europe or the United States have been planned from this region.
Other al‑Qaida affiliates, such as al‑Shabaab in Somalia, continue to dominate rural areas and maintain significant revenue streams. Meanwhile, the Islamic State’s presence in sub‑Saharan Africa—particularly in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mozambique, Chad and Nigeria—has drawn US airstrikes in recent years.
Al‑Qaida’s leadership remains unclear. While the group’s senior commander, Ayman al‑Zawahiri, was killed in 2022, no formal successor has been announced. The de facto leader is believed to be Saif al‑Adel, who has been in Iran since 2002, and other leaders likely operate from Afghanistan.
The Yemen‑based Al‑Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) remains the most active affiliate outside Africa, with a reported 2,000 fighters. AQAP’s media channels have called on Muslims in Europe and the United States to carry out local attacks, though its overall activity has fallen by 70% from early 2025 to early 2026.
These developments highlight the Sahel’s growing importance as a breeding ground for Islamist militancy, driven by sectarian conflict, resource competition, weak governance and endemic instability. While the region’s groups can inspire attacks abroad, their capacity for large‑scale operations remains limited compared to the group’s peak post‑9/11 era.
What’s next?
With over 2,000 incidents already recorded in 2026, the Sahel’s security situation remains volatile. International partners continue to monitor the region closely, while local governments grapple with counter‑terrorism strategies amid ongoing insurgencies. The trajectory of al‑Qaida and IS affiliates in the Sahel will be a key indicator of the broader threat landscape in sub‑Saharan Africa.
Why it matters
The surge in Sahel violence signals a shift in global jihadist focus, raising concerns about regional stability and the potential for transnational attacks. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for policymakers and security analysts worldwide.
Key points
- Over 2,800 jihadist incidents recorded in 2025, likely surpassing 3,000 in 2026
- JNIM’s 2024 offensive in Mali captured Kidal and killed key officials
- Burkina Faso and Niger face growing JNIM activity, with IS also active
- Al‑Qaida’s leadership remains unclear; Saif al‑Adel is a suspected de facto leader
- AQAP’s activity has declined but still issues calls for attacks in Europe and the US
Frequently asked questions
What is the Sahel region?
The Sahel is a semi‑arid belt in Africa stretching from the Atlantic coast in the west to the Red Sea in the east, encompassing parts of Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria, Chad, Sudan and Mauritania.
Why is the Sahel attractive to jihadist groups?
The region’s weak governance, ethnic tensions, resource competition and porous borders create fertile ground for extremist recruitment and operations.
How does the Sahel conflict affect global security?
While most attacks remain local, the Sahel’s groups can inspire or coordinate attacks abroad, and their presence complicates regional stability and humanitarian efforts.
