I have seen the scale of the mountain Labour has to climb in Gorton and Denton – but also the way it can do it | Polly Toynbee
The Gorton and Denton byelection highlights the deep split between progressive voters and the far‑right Reform Party. Labour’s strategy, internal missteps and the broader Brexit‑driven realignment threaten its chances, while the stakes include preventing a far‑right surge in the north‑west.
The upcoming Gorton and Denton byelection has become a litmus test for the Labour Party’s ability to halt the rise of the far‑right Reform Party. With the seat traditionally a Labour stronghold, the contest now pits a Reform candidate who espouses extreme nationalist rhetoric against a Labour campaign still trying to recover from a series of strategic blunders.
Why the byelection matters
Gorton and Denton sits in Greater Manchester, an area that voted heavily for Labour in the 2019 general election but has seen a noticeable shift among working‑class voters toward the Reform Party, a splinter of the former Brexit Party. The byelection follows a series of focus‑group findings that show progressive voters – Labour, Liberal Democrats, Greens, SNP and Plaid Cymru – are united by a desire to keep Reform out of Parliament, even if it means voting for a party they normally oppose.
At the same time, research by political scientists Tim Bale, Paul Webb and Stavroula Chrona reveals a widening cultural and policy gulf between Reform members and progressive voters. Reform supporters overwhelmingly favour tax cuts, reduced public spending and a hard‑line stance on immigration, while progressives back higher public investment, net‑zero climate policies and a more inclusive definition of British identity.
Labour’s strategic missteps
Over the past 18 months Labour has pursued a “hippy‑punching” strategy designed to appeal to centrist voters while alienating its left‑leaning base. The approach, attributed to former strategist Morgan McSweeney, sought to soften the party’s left‑wing image without offering a clear alternative to Reform’s hard‑line platform. The result has been a loss of confidence among traditional Labour voters and a failure to attract the Reform‑leaning electorate.
Keir Starmer’s leadership has been criticised for not addressing the cultural divide highlighted by the research. While Starmer has warned that Reform poses a “real and terrifying” threat, his messaging has not resonated with progressive focus groups in Bristol, who described him as “insincere” and “slimy”. The disconnect underscores a broader problem: Labour is simultaneously chasing voters who are unlikely to support it and driving away those who already do.
Reform’s extremist messaging
Reform candidate Matt Goodwin has doubled down on an exclusionary definition of Englishness, claiming that being English is an ethnicity tied to centuries‑old roots. Such statements echo far‑right rhetoric historically associated with extremist movements. Goodwin’s remarks have drawn comparisons to the Nuremberg Laws of 1935, which stripped Jews of German citizenship based on ancestry.
The party’s platform includes proposals to abolish indefinite leave to remain, a policy that would make it harder for long‑term residents to gain permanent status. In contrast, Labour Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood has suggested a pathway that could allow refugees to wait up to 20 years for permanent residency, a compromise that still faces criticism from both sides of the political spectrum.
What the numbers say
- 86% of Reform members oppose net‑zero climate targets, compared with 69% of the wider public who support them.
- 98% of Reform members and 92% of Conservative members say immigration levels are too high, versus only 34% of Labour members.
- Reform voters prioritize traits such as “willingness to break rules” and “aggressive leadership”, while progressives favour a “strong moral compass”.
- Polling of progressive focus groups shows a willingness to vote for any party that can keep Reform out, even a Conservative candidate.
Path forward for Labour
To prevent a Reform breakthrough, Labour must rebuild trust with its progressive base while offering a credible alternative to Reform’s hard‑line agenda. This involves re‑emphasising policies on affordable housing, renters’ rights, free childcare and a living‑wage increase – issues that resonated strongly in the Bristol focus group.
Starmer’s rallying cry at the last party conference – “We must come together to fight Reform” – remains sound in principle but requires concrete policy commitments and a clear narrative that differentiates Labour from both the Conservatives and Reform. Failure to do so could see the progressive vote split, handing Reform a victory even if Labour retains most of its traditional voters.
Ultimately, the Gorton and Denton byelection will not only decide who holds a single seat but will also signal whether Labour can adapt to the post‑Brexit realignment that has reshaped British politics. A Labour win would suggest the party can still mobilise its progressive coalition, while a Reform victory could accelerate the fragmentation of the left‑leaning vote across the north‑west.
Why it matters
The result will indicate whether Labour can stop the far‑right Reform Party from breaking into traditionally Labour‑held seats, shaping the future of progressive politics in the UK.
Key points
- Gorton and Denton byelection is a test of Labour’s ability to block far‑right Reform
- Research shows a deep cultural and policy divide between Reform supporters and progressive voters
- Labour’s recent centrist‑leaning strategy has alienated its base and failed to attract Reform voters
- Reform’s extremist rhetoric on English identity echoes historic far‑right movements
- Labour must refocus on progressive policies and unite its base to prevent a split vote
Frequently asked questions
What is the Reform Party’s stance on immigration?
Reform calls for drastically reduced immigration, proposes abolishing indefinite leave to remain and supports creating a force modelled on the US ICE agency.
How does Labour’s policy on refugees differ from Reform’s?
Labour’s Home Secretary has suggested a pathway that could allow refugees to wait up to 20 years for permanent residency, whereas Reform wants to end indefinite leave and push for mass deportations.
Why is the Gorton and Denton byelection considered a bellwether?
The seat has historically been Labour‑held, but the rise of Reform makes it a micro‑cosm of the broader Brexit‑driven realignment and the battle for progressive voters across the north‑west.
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