Hard hats, AI and a fake pandemic: the group of former world leaders practising to save the world
In Nairobi, the Elders—a group of former heads of state founded by Nelson Mandela—joined WHO officials in a pandemic simulation. The exercise revealed weaknesses in reporting, coordination, and climate‑health integration, underscoring the urgency of a global pandemic treaty.
In a high‑profile simulation held at the World Health Organization’s emergency hub outside Nairobi, former presidents, diplomats and WHO staff tested Africa’s preparedness for a sudden disease outbreak. The scenario, designed by the Elders—a collective of ex‑world leaders founded by Nelson Mandela—pitted a fictional bird‑flu outbreak in Chad against the real‑world backdrop of recent Ebola cases in Uganda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Setting the Stage: A Hypothetical Crisis
Participants gathered around a boardroom table as a screen displayed a map of eastern Chad, where health workers had reported several deaths from respiratory failure. Initial lab samples hinted at a novel bird‑flu variant, but confirmation required sending samples abroad—a process that could take days. According to international health regulations, Chad would need to notify the World Health Organization within 24 hours of assessment, yet the country’s government was reluctant, fearing economic fallout and stigma.
The Elders’ Role and the Simulation’s Dynamics
The Elders, which include former leaders such as Mexico’s Ernesto Zedillo, Liberia’s Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, and the United Nations’ former High Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid bin Ra’ad bin Zeid al‑Hussein, used their collective experience to guide the discussion. Zedillo opened the debate by stressing the need for incentives that would encourage governments to report outbreaks promptly. He cited South Africa’s experience during the 2021 COVID‑19 variant surge, when travel bans and restrictions were imposed.
Al‑Hussein suggested that health policy should emulate the verification systems that work in other sectors, urging a cross‑sector approach to strengthen response mechanisms. Sirleaf highlighted that many reporting countries lack the systemic capacity to detect and report pandemics, pointing to weak healthcare infrastructures rather than political will as the core issue.
Over the next hour, the Elders navigated a series of scenarios that illustrated how geopolitical tensions, climate change, and conflict could compound outbreak responses. They drew on lessons from past crises—such as the Ebola outbreak in West Africa—to evaluate decision‑making in real time.
WHO’s Contributions and AI Innovations
WHO representatives opened the session with a briefing on how the organization supports African nations in detecting and responding to health emergencies. They also introduced a new AI‑enabled system designed to aid decision‑makers in assessing health threats, offering predictive analytics and real‑time data integration.
The simulation coincided with a hantavirus outbreak and, just a day later, the announcement of an Ebola outbreak in Uganda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo that had already claimed at least 139 lives. The timing underscored the urgency of the Elders’ work and the broader global health landscape.
Challenges Highlighted: Reporting, Climate, and Trust
In a later scenario, Chad finally notified WHO, but two weeks later, after the situation had escalated and cases appeared in northern Cameroon. Severe flooding had cut off transport routes, delaying the shipment of pathogen samples to an international laboratory. The Elders questioned how WHO and its partners could better prepare for simultaneous health and climate crises.
Al‑Hussein called for collaboration between climate scientists and health experts, noting that many professionals work in one field but not the other. Sirleaf agreed, stating that an integrated global response system was still lacking.
Denis Mukwege, a Congolese Nobel laureate, emphasized the importance of multilateralism and rapid political will, arguing that “we never know where an outbreak will happen.” He urged that all countries be ready for a sudden surge, as diseases can cross borders swiftly.
Dr. Mohamed Janabi, WHO’s regional director for Africa, reflected on the exercise’s insights, noting that Africa recorded 146 emergency disease outbreaks last year. He warned that outbreaks will continue, and the focus must shift to effective management.
Looking Ahead: The Need for a Pandemic Treaty
The simulation took place against the backdrop of a missed deadline to finalize a global pandemic treaty announced during the COVID‑19 pandemic. The treaty would have outlined how nations share pathogen information and secure access to vaccines, tests, and treatments. Its delay highlights trust gaps between wealthy and poorer countries, especially in Africa, which suffered vaccine inequity during COVID‑19.
The Elders’ exercise underscored that without a binding agreement, countries may hesitate to report outbreaks, fearing economic repercussions. Strengthening global cooperation and building robust verification systems are essential steps toward a more resilient world.
As the Elders and WHO officials return to their respective roles, the lessons from Nairobi will inform future policy discussions and emergency preparedness plans across the continent.
Why it matters
The exercise reveals critical gaps in Africa’s pandemic response, emphasizing the need for timely reporting, integrated climate‑health strategies, and a binding global treaty to protect vulnerable nations.
Key points
- Elders use their experience to guide WHO in a pandemic simulation
- Chad’s reluctance to report a bird‑flu outbreak highlights reporting challenges
- AI tools introduced to improve real‑time decision‑making
- Climate and health systems need stronger integration
- A global pandemic treaty remains unfinished, undermining trust
Frequently asked questions
Who are the Elders?
The Elders is a group of former world leaders founded by Nelson Mandela in 2007 to address global crises.
What was the main goal of the Nairobi simulation?
To test Africa’s preparedness for sudden disease outbreaks and identify gaps in reporting, coordination, and climate‑health integration.
Why is a global pandemic treaty important?
It would establish how nations share pathogen data and secure access to vaccines, tests, and treatments, fostering trust and cooperation.
