Brief
Global food prices set to rise as shipping disruptions and El Niño drought tighten supplies
Conflict‑related shipping shocks, higher freight rates and El Niño‑driven drought are expected to lift global food inflation through 2027.
By Felo News Desk · Published
Global food inflation is projected to accelerate in the coming months and remain elevated into 2027, driven by war‑related shipping disruptions, rising freight costs and El Niño‑induced drought, according to a Bizcommunity report citing Reuters.
What happened
The report notes that attacks on Black Sea grain infrastructure have curtailed wheat shipments, forcing major importers such as Egypt and Indonesia to look for alternative sources. In the Red Sea, heightened insecurity has forced vessels onto longer routes around Africa, adding fuel and time costs. The U.S.–Israeli war on Iran has pushed up fuel prices and disrupted fertiliser exports through the Strait of Hormuz, raising farming costs just as dry El Niño weather reduces output in India and Southeast Asia.
What the reports add
Specific price impacts include record‑high rice prices in Indonesia, a 25% rise in bread costs in Egypt and an all‑time high for sugar in India, where the weakest monsoon in a decade has cut production. The FAO Food Price Index averaged 136 points in September, the highest level since November 2022. The World Bank found that food prices outpaced headline inflation in 22% of the 150 countries it analysed in the September quarter, up from 14% in the previous quarter.
What was said
"All this has put considerable pressure on the system," said Maximo Torero, chief economist at the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), as reported by Bizcommunity. In Jakarta, 63‑year‑old parking attendant Muhamad Yasin told Reuters that his weekly earnings of 200,000‑300,000 rupiah now buy only half the rice, tempeh and tofu he could previously purchase for 7,000‑8,000 rupiah.
How it came about
The current squeeze follows a series of supply‑chain shocks identified in earlier Felo coverage, including the FAO’s September 2026 warning about transport bottlenecks and climate shocks (FAO says weather and shipping woes lift global food prices in September) and Gulf producers’ shift to shelf‑stable processing after shipping delays (Gulf food producers seek shelf‑stable solutions as shipping delays cut product shelf life).
Key facts
- The FAO Food Price Index averaged 136 points in September, the highest since November 2022. (bizcommunity.com)
- Food prices outpaced headline inflation in 22% of 150 countries in the September quarter, up from 14% previously. (bizcommunity.com)
- Rice prices in Indonesia have reached record highs, while bread in Egypt rose 25% and sugar in India hit an all‑time high. (bizcommunity.com)
- Attacks on Black Sea grain infrastructure and Red Sea insecurity have forced longer, costlier shipping routes. (bizcommunity.com)
- FAO chief economist Maximo Torero warned the pressures could lift consumer food prices through 2027. (bizcommunity.com)
Sources
- [1] bizcommunity.com — originally reported as “Global food prices set to climb as shipping shocks squeeze supplies”
